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Brewers: 3 Prospects Who Have Broken Out in 2023 As Minor League Season Wraps Up
In a deep Milwaukee farm system, a few prospects have seen their stock rise heavily this season.
The Milwaukee Brewers have done an incredible job at bolstering their minor league system in the past couple of years while managing to stay competitive with their big league club. MLB Pipeline has ranked Milwaukee as the third-best farm system in all of baseball, and with top-ranked prospects like Jackson Chourio and Jacob Misiorowski headlining that group, there is a lot for Brewers fans to be excited for.
Along with hitting on big international signings and high draft picks, Milwaukee has found a few diamonds in the later rounds of the draft, and even in undrafted free agency.
Small-market teams such as Milwaukee need some of these players to turn into MLB roster pieces to stay competitive, and every year, the Brewers have prospects who climb up the rankings and eventually join the big league club as contributors.
Here are 3 Brewers Prospects who have broken out in the 2023 Minor League season
Brewers breakout prospect: RHP Shane Smith
Shane Smith was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2021 by the Milwaukee Brewers after posting a 4.35 ERA in 10.1 innings pitched at Wake Forest over two years. Smith was the closer for a 2020 Wake Forest team who had their season cut short by COVID-19, and earned a spot in the starting rotation on the 2021 team before his season was cut short by Tommy John surgery after just two starts.
The Brewers saw enough in the 6'4", 235-pound RHP to sign him to a contract, and sent him to the Arizona Complex League to rehab for most of 2021 and 2022. Smith would open in three games for the ACL Brewers in late 2022, throwing three innings. While Smith pitched both from the starting rotation and the bullpen for Wake Forest, the Brewers shifted their focus to using him as a reliever for the 2023 season.
Smith posted a 2.59 ERA for the Carolina Mudcats in his first full go out of the bullpen. In 31.1 innings pitched, he allowed 23 hits and 10 walks while striking out 40.3% of the batters he faced. This incredible start to the season for Smith led to a promotion to High-A Wisconsin, where the success has continued. Smith has put up a 1.42 ERA in 25.1 innings, while still managing to strike out 31.6% of the batters he has faced. According to Fangraphs, Smith has posted the highest K/BB% in the entire Brewers system this season, at 25.7%.
Shane Smith possesses a plus fastball and slider and also throws in a cutter to keep hitters off balance. At 23 years old, he is rising quickly through the minor-league levels and was recently promoted to Double-A Biloxi. Smith has prototypical reliever size and pitch mix, and with only 84.2 innings thrown over all levels since 2020, the Brewers are hoping to capitalize on his arm talent.
Brewers breakout prospect: 3B/1B Luke Adams
Luke Adams was a 12th round pick (372nd overall) in the 2022 MLB Draft out of Hinsdale Central High School in Illinois, and after having a great start to his professional career in rookie ball last season, Adams was poised to break out. He slashed .375/.512/.563 for a 1.075 OPS in 32 plate appearances in the ACL in 2022, with four extra base hits and a 8/7 BB/K ratio.
Adams started the 2023 season as the starting 3rd baseman for the Single-A Carolina Mudcats, and the production has been there all season. Adams is slashing .233/.400/.401 with a 135 wRC+ in his first full minor league season. He has 32 XBH, including 11 home runs, and has scored 74 times in 99 games. He is tied for ninth in home runs in the Carolina League, and he leads the league in runs scored. He has also spent time at first base and designated hitter this season, splitting 24 games between those two positions.
Where Adams has really broken out in 2023 is in plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills. Adams has the second-highest BB% for all qualified hitters in A-ball, at 17.3%, and the third-highest BB/K ratio, at .77.
Adams also does an incredible job at getting baserunning production at his size. While Adams is listed with 30-grade speed on Fangraphs, he has 30 stolen bases this season, and stole 9 bags in 11 games in the complex league. He has a 7.5 speed score (Spd), which ranks him as the 5th-best baserunner among qualified hitters in A-ball.
According to Fangraphs, Adams was listed as the Brewers #42 overall prospect heading into the 2023 season. The prospect report on Adams is high on his hit and power tools, as he has future grades of 55 and 60 on hit and raw power, respectively. What brings him down so far in the prospect rankings is his defense. Adams is currently a 20-grade defender, and there is doubt in his future at third base, with left field and first base seemingly being his most fitting positions.
At the age of 19, Adams has shown great growth as a hitter, and if this type of production continues, he could skyrocket up Brewers prospect lists as soon as next season.
Brewers breakout prospect: RHP Logan Henderson
Logan Henderson is the prospect with the most pedigree on this list, landing as Milwaukee's 18th-best prospect on their Top 30 Prospects list. Henderson was selected as a starting pitcher in the 4th round of the 2021 draft after leading McLennan (TX) Community College to a Junior College World Series title, taking home series MVP honors. Henderson had 169 strikeouts in 97.2 innings at McLennan, only walking 23, and holding batters to a .148 batting average.
Like Shane Smith, Henderson also underwent issues with his elbow, opting for a non-Tommy John elbow surgery before the 2022 season, and would take most of the 2022 season to rehab. Henderson would come back to make seven starts between the Complex League and Single-A in 2022, allowing six earned runs in 13.2 innings while striking out 23 and walking six. While the strikeout numbers were very encouraging, Henderson's season ended early after more arm soreness popped up, causing him to miss the Arizona Fall League.
Henderson came into his first full season with a healthy arm in 2023, and the numbers have been great in Single-A Carolina. Henderson has posted a 2.75 ERA in 18 starts (78.2 IP), striking out 106 batters, and only walking 23. He leads the Carolina League in K% (min. 60 IP) at 35.7%, and K/BB% at 26.6%. He has held opposing batters to a .183 batting average and holds a WHIP of 0.97, which are fifth-best and second-best in the league, respectively. The only player in the entire Milwaukee minor league system that he trails in K/BB% is Shane Smith.
Logan Henderson possesses a great two-pitch mix, with Fangraphs listing his changeup as a 60-grade pitch, along with his fastball being a 50-grade pitch. He struggles to command his slider, and it lacks the great break that his changeup has, creating some doubt about the use of that pitch in his future. Henderson also carries a high-effort delivery that leads some to consider him as more of a long-term reliever.
Regardless, Henderson has great strikeout numbers, and as long as he continues to produce and stay healthy as a starter, Milwaukee will continue to allow him to grow in that position. Henderson is a very talented prospect, and as he sits at only 78.2 career innings thrown since being drafted in Milwaukee, the Brewers are very hopeful for his future.
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