Brewers: 3 Reasons Why The Crew Will Beat The Diamondbacks, 2 Reasons To Be Concerned

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The Milwaukee Brewers and Arizona Diamondbacks will square off in a best of three Wild Card Series starting on Tuesday, October 3. Milwaukee won their division and finished as the third seed in the standings with a 92-70 record. Their opponent will be the sixth seed in the Arizona Diamondbacks. They came in as the last team in the playoffs with a 84-78 record.

It has been 12 years since these two teams last met in the postseason. 2011 was the only playoff match up between these teams, and it ended when Nyjer Morgan famously hit a walk-off single in the decisive Game 5.

A lot has happened with each organization over the last decade, but here we will take a look at three reasons as to why Milwaukee will once again emerge victorious and two things to be concerned about.

3 reasons why the Milwaukee Brewers will defeat the Arizona Diamondbacks in the Wild Card Series

1) Arizona has struggled down the stretch whereas Milwaukee has continued to play well and win ball games

Both of these teams finished with winning records during the month of September in which the Brewers went 17-11 and the Diamondbacks 15-12. However the ending of the season for these two teams was drastically different.

Arizona, who needed victories down the stretch, lost six out of their last 10 games whereas the Brewers won eight out of their last 12. The Diamondbacks had the second WIld Card practically secured, but faltered over the final week and a half, dropping down to the third spot. The Diamondbacks have scored just three runs over their last four games while the Brewers have scored 17 runs in that time.

From this standpoint momentum is clearly on the Brewers side heading into the playoffs, and momentum can be everything in October.

2) The Arizona Diamondbacks are starting a rookie pitcher in game one.

Due to needing victories to even clinch a playoff spot, the Diamondbacks were unable to perfectly line up their starting rotation for the Wild Card Series. Their ace Zac Gallen threw 104 pitches on Friday night and Merrill Kelly threw 93 a day later.

Arizona announced that 24 year old rookie Brandon Pfaadt will get the Game One start. Pfaadt has a 5.72 ERA in 19 games this season. He gives up a lot of hard contact and averages 10.2 hits allowed per nine innings. That's not exactly the ideal scenario for the Diamondbacks. Avoiding Gallen or Kelly in Game One is huge for Milwaukee.

Ryne Nelson is arguably their third starting pitcher, but he threw one inning during the season finale on Sunday and may get the nod should the series go to three games. On the other hand Milwaukee is lined up to throw Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta (if necessary) all on normal/extended rest.

3) Over the last month the Brewers have been better than the Diamondbacks in nearly every major statistical category

Taking a look at statistics over the last 30 days the Brewers are near the top in the league in several major statistics while the Diamondbacks are in the middle of the pack. Offensively, they have more runs scored (139 to 115), more hits (247 to 207), and a better batting average (.261 to .232), on-base percentage (.324 to .312), and slugging percentage (.420 to .355).

From a pitching standpoint the Brewers also have the edge in ERA (2.54 to 3.81), shutouts (four to two), WHIP (1.08 to 1.23), and batting average against (.202 to .235). Based on recent statistics, records, and overall performance the advantage in this match up goes to Milwaukee.

Two concerns for the Milwaukee Brewers facing the Arizona Diamondbacks in the Wild Card Series

1) The Milwaukee Brewers have not had a lot of success against Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly

Despite potentially operating on short rest Brewers fans still do not want to see Zac Gallen or Merrill Kelly because historically the team not had good success against them. Zac Gallen has a career 1.75 ERA against Milwaukee over six starts with a 0.83 WHIP and 11.0 K:9 ratio. Merrill Kelly has eight career starts against the Crew with a 3.04 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and a .194 batting average against.

The Brewers are able to avoid them in Game 1, but those two starters in Games 2 and 3 are going to be tough to get one win out of, and Milwaukee could even potentially need two wins against them if they fall in Game 1.

2) Both teams play a similar style of baseball that at their core is centered around speed and defense

This year the Diamondbacks finished second only to the Cincinnati Reds in stolen bases with 166. Corbin Carroll led the way with 54 and Jake McCarthy was second with 26. Defensively they finished fourth in DRS at 48. On the other hand Milwaukee stole 129 bases (11th best) in which Christian Yelich (28) and Brice Turang (26) led the way. In the field they finished second only to the Toronto Blue Jays in DRS at 68.

The Brewers beat other teams because they have superior defense to them, and a whole lot of speed out there, to go along with top flight starters. The Diamondbacks are just about as good defensively, possibly a little faster, and they have some top flight starters to match. That lines up a gritty series between the two teams.

The Brewers and Diamondbacks Wild Card Series will begin on Tuesday, October 3 and could go as late as Thursday, October 5. All three games (if necessary) will start at 6:08 PM CT.

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