Brewers: 4 Trade Deadline Mistakes Matt Arnold Must Avoid At All Costs
These things cannot happen!
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Previous Trade Deadlines for the Brewers have not gone all that well. Several of the players Milwaukee has acquired haven't panned out and occasionally there's just been a bad overall approach to the Deadline.
The Brewers can ill afford another bad trade deadline. They're in a good position to earn a playoff spot this year and have the ability to make a run deep into the playoffs...if they make the right moves before the trade deadline is up.
Last year, the Brewers made several mistakes at the Trade Deadline. That can't happen again. Here's how they can avoid that.
This year, the Brewers must avoid making these four mistakes at the MLB Trade Deadline at all costs.
Deadline mistake to avoid #1: Trading a core member of the big league club
This would seem like an obvious thing to do for a buying team at the Trade Deadline. Apparently it wasn't so obvious last year when the Brewers traded Josh Hader to the Padres at the deadline for four players in return, one of whom was immediately DFAed and another flipped in the offseason.
This year, stars Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames are at the same service time level as Hader and are a year and a half away from free agency. The Brewers know they're unlikely to keep them long-term and thus trade rumors will swirl. The temptation may be there to cash in while the value is highest.
But that would be a mistake and thankfully it seems Matt Arnold understands that. After the Hader trade went over like a lead balloon in the clubhouse and in the fanbase, Arnold has assured ace Corbin Burnes he will not be traded at the Deadline. That's a good start for Arnold.
Beyond Burnes and Adames, the Brewers shouldn't be looking to flip any key member of the big league roster. That goes for backup catcher Victor Caratini, who's been the subject of some rumors that he could be traded away at the Deadline this year. He's a pending free agent and has become the personal catcher for Corbin Burnes. It would be odd for Milwaukee to promise Burnes they wouldn't trade him and then turn around and trade away his personal catcher.
If guys are going to be heading off the Brewers big league roster, it should be because other acquisitions have taken their place and they need to be optioned or DFAed to make room. Trading away big league veterans and key pieces of the roster would be a mistake that Matt Arnold needs to avoid.
Deadline mistake to avoid #2: Banking on internal improvements from the offense
Last year, the Brewers biggest need was offense. They acquired only one position player, Esteury Ruiz in the Hader trade, and they didn't even call upon him to help the big league club. They were instead banking on their current hitters to just start hitting better. They can't make that mistake again.
The Brewers have some injured and underperforming hitters. Rowdy Tellez was in a massive slump before an injury. Luis Urias was injured early in the year and didn't perform well after getting healthy. Milwaukee cannot allow themselves to think that they don't need to get any more offensive help because they have Tellez coming back or can call upon Urias from Triple-A. Jesse Winker has been a massive disappointment.
Milwaukee needs some insurance in case Tellez, Winker, and Urias don't start hitting again. They should look to get more than just insurance, they should get a sure thing where they aren't expecting to rely on Tellez or Urias down the stretch.
The Carlos Santana trade helps address the first base position and perhaps could put Tellez out of his job when he returns, but the DH is still a possibility. Milwaukee needs help at DH and depending on Tellez for that would be a mistake. Depending on Jesse Winker to be better at that spot would be a mistake.
The Brewers cannot just stick with Carlos Santana as their only offensive addition. They need more and they need to get players that are currently outside the organization. Milwaukee's cycled through all the position player options on their 40 man roster and there isn't much there.
Going into this deadline with the mindset that the Brewers can rely on Tellez, Winker, Urias, and Brian Anderson to perform to the standard necessary when they return would be a colossal mistake that Matt Arnold needs to avoid. Get more hitters.
Deadline mistake to avoid #3: Panicking and making a trade just to make a trade
Last year, it seems David Stearns panicked. He pulled off the Hader trade the day before the Trade Deadline and was looking to line up several other big trades with the extra time he had, but they all fell apart on him. Time was winding down and the big plans weren't coming together. Still, he needed to make another move and couldn't simply leave it at the Hader trade.
So he ends up sending out a solid prospect in Tristan Peters for an injured reliever that hadn't pitched in two years and was still a month away from returning in Trevor Rosenthal. The Brewers could've simply signed Rosenthal as a free agent a month prior and they didn't.
Rosenthal never ended up throwing a pitch for the Brewers because he got hurt again before he could debut, which should've been predictable because he had been injured the last two years. The panic move that didn't need to be made ended up looking like an even worse deal than the Hader trade just the day before.
The Brewers made a panic move at the last minute in 2018 as well, failing to acquire the pitching they wanted, Stearns doubled down on second base, getting Jonathan Schoop from the Orioles. Schoop didn't work out either.
When failing to agree on a price for the players that fit the team's needs as time is winding down, panic can set in and the front office can look to simply make a deal wherever they can make a deal. Most of the time those types of trades haven't worked out for Milwaukee. The Brewers don't have the leverage in that situation and if it's not going to address a need on the team, then the trade doesn't need to be made.
Matt Arnold cannot panic and make a trade that doesn't help the club and gives up valuable prospect capital just because the clock is winding down.
Deadline mistake to avoid #4: Being afraid to trade from the farm
This isn't to advocate for the Brewers selling the farm, but they should be willing to deal from their prospect depth in the minor leagues. Don't sell the top guys like Jackson Chourio, Jacob Misiorowski, Tyler Black, and Jeferson Quero, obviously. These prospects should not be going anywhere.
But that's not only because the Brewers won't want to part with them and they are in the plans for the future. It's also because there really isn't anyone on the market that's worth any of those players. The top guys are staying.
The rest of the farm system, the non-top 100 prospects, the Brewers need to be willing to trade from that group in order to get the reinforcements they need at the big league level.
Perhaps the only prospect from that group the Brewers should focus on keeping that's not already in the majors is lefty Robert Gasser, because he's so close to the big leagues. Other than that, the Brewers will be just fine dealing the other prospects from their farm system.
Prospects are important for a small market team to remain competitive and the Brewers don't plan on going into a rebuil anytime soon. Matt Arnold said he plans to add "responsibly" and he's not looking to sell the farm for magic beans. But does that simply mean he's not willing to trade from the Crew's top five prospects in the system? Or how far down does the list go of prospects he's not willing to move because it wouldn't be responsible.
Be wary of dealing the Top 100 prospects, but don't be wary of dealing from the rest of the farm system. Hug the prospects you want most, but be willing to let some go in order to improve this team and give yourself a legitimate chance to be hugging a trophy at the end of the season.
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