Brewers: 5 Bold Predictions For The 2024 Season

It's that time once again where we boldly predict what will happen in the upcoming Milwaukee Brewers season. A lot has changed from last year's team to this year's squad. While a lot of the changes may not seem as positive for this year's outlook, there's plenty of reasons to be optimistic.

Despite all the changes, the Brewers are still expected to compete for the NL Central division title and get back to the postseason where their luck may finally turn.

There's a new manager at the helm in Pat Murphy, Freddy Peralta has been promoted to staff ace, and 20 year old phenom Jackson Chourio has arrived.

That's all happened just over the offseason, what's going to happen during the season? Let's look at what we can see in our crystal ball in our 2024 Brewers bold predictions.

Bold Prediction #1: Rhys Hoskins leads NL in home runs, wins Comeback Player of the Year

One of the best moves the Brewers made this winter was the free agent addition of Rhys Hoskins. After cutting ties with Rowdy Tellez, trading Mark Canha, and letting Carlos Santana walk, the Brewers desperately needed yet another makeover at first base.

They decided to bring in longtime Phillies first baseman Rhys Hoskins on a two year, $34MM contract with an opt out after the 2024 season.

Hoskins was the top available first baseman on the market this winter and the Brewers were quick to strike to get their guy. He's coming off a torn ACL suffered in last year's spring training that kept him out for the entire 2023 season. It led to him being open to taking a modified pillow contract to reset his value and hit the open market coming off a platform season to earn a long term deal. That was the perfect situation for a small market team like the Brewers, who would be unlikely to be able to afford Hoskins on a long term contract.

After missing so much time, Hoskins is hungry to get out there again. He's hungry to prove he's deserving of the big money contract he wants. Plus, he gets a chance to prove it playing half of his games in a hitter's paradise at American Family Field.

In his career, Hoskins has never had a full season with fewer than 27 homers. The only exceptions were the shortened 2020 season where he had 10, and his rookie season where he slugged 18 long balls in 50 games.

He's also never led the league in homers. Until this year, I boldly predict. Hoskins will lead the National League in home runs. There's a lot of competition with Matt Olson, Pete Alonso, and now Shohei Ohtani in the National League, leading the NL will be a challenge, but it's certainly not impossible.

On top of the home run barrage Hoskins will have, he'll also collect a Comeback Player of the Year award for his triumphant return from missing the entire 2023 season due to his torn ACL.

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Bold Prediction #3: Aaron Ashby and Robert Gasser become the top trusted starters behind Freddy Peralta

Is it possible the second and third best starters on this team won't even make the Opening Day rotation? It definitely is and this rotation is going to change a lot throughout the 2024 season.

The Brewers rotation went from a bona fide strength for the past couple of years to filled with a lot of question marks for 2024. Corbin Burnes is now in Baltimore, Brandon Woodruff is out for the year, while Adrian Houser and Eric Lauer are gone. After Freddy Peralta, there is not a lot of certainty in this group.

That leaves opportunities for young pitchers to take advantage of. The Brewers have already lost one veteran in Wade Miley to the IL to start the year and the veterans that are in the group aren't super inspiring with the combination of Jakob Junis, Colin Rea, and Joe Ross. Milwaukee has young pitching prospects ready for big league chances and a couple of them are due to step forward. Quite frankly, the Brewers will straight up need a couple of young pitchers to step forward.

The favorite among many to step up will be DL Hall. Hall is a young arm that came over in the Burnes trade, but his walk issues may not be fixed right away and he's never thrown 100 IP in a season before, which concerns me about his durability to remain a starter all season without an innings limit.

I think the pitchers that step up will be Aaron Ashby and Robert Gasser, neither of whom are making the Opening Day roster.

Ashby has had big league experience before, but he missed last season due to shoulder surgery. He's going to start the year in the minors to finish ramping back up, but he'll be called upon quickly once he's ready and an opportunity presents itself. Once he's back up, I don't foresee Ashby going back down or losing his rotation spot.

Gasser is major league ready, and Pat Murphy indicated we'll likely see Gasser get the call early on this season. Once he's up and gets a few starts under his belt, the Brewers are probably going to like what they see and may ultimately want to give him starts over someone like Joe Ross or Jakob Junis.

Those veterans serve an important purpose, but they don't have the upside that someone like Gasser has at this point. The Brewers want to see what their young guys have this year. Gasser and Ashby are the future in this rotation, Junis and Ross are not.

There is one trusted arm in this rotation right now and that's Freddy Peralta. Who Murphy ends up trusting behind him is up for grabs, but as the season goes on, I think the two guys who will earn that trust are Ashby and Gasser.

Bold Prediction #4: Jackson Chourio struggles in April, but gets hot in May and never looks back, wins NL Rookie of the Year

There's always an adjustment period for young players reaching the big leagues for the first time. Jackson Chourio, who has already received an 8 year contract extension, will be making his debut on Opening Day and the Brewers have preached patience as he goes through the ups and inevitable downs of the major leagues.

Chourio is as highly touted as it gets. He has received comparisons to Ronald Acuna, Mike Trout, and Julio Rodriguez. He's a hitting savant, he's naturally gifted. He just turned 20 years old, he's not even legally allowed to drink beer yet. Yet he's going to be the face of the Brewers.

Last year, when Chourio was challenged with starting the year in Double-A as a 19 year old, he struggled for the first bit of the season. Then he figured it out and went on a tear. I think we'll see something similar here in 2024.

Chourio I think will struggle a bit out of the gate. He's at the highest level, it's cold weather, tough pitching, and he'll struggle to adjust in the early going. As the saying goes, the bat will heat up as the weather heats up and I think Chourio will figure it out after a month, put together a very good month of May, and he'll just keep hitting and getting better from there.

I predict he's going to mash his way to an NL Rookie of the Year crown. The NL will be a tough race with nine-figure international signings Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jung-Hoo Lee also eligible for the award. But Yamamoto has struggled in spring and in the Seoul Series, while Lee plays in a cavernous park in San Francisco that dampens hitting stats.

I think Chourio will finish the year in the .270-.275 range for batting average with 20+ homers and 30+ steals. That's my prediction for his numbers, which should be plenty to get himself as the frontrunner for the NL Rookie of the Year.

Bold Prediction #5: The Brewers eliminate the Cubs in the Wild Card round, finally ending their streak of first round playoff exits

Usually my 5th and final bold prediction is something involving the Brewers winning the World Series. But I'm tired of these first round exits and much like Jim Mora, "Playoffs? I just want to win a game". The Brewers are 1-9 in their last 10 playoff games and the manager of that playoff record, bolted 90 miles south in the hopes of an easier path to playoff victory.

Instead, I predict the Brewers will once again win the NL Central crown, but fall short of earning the bye past the Wild Card round. It'll be difficult enough to win the division again, they certainly aren't getting enough wins to top the winner of the NL East or West to get the bye. So they'll play in the best of 3 Wild Card series and I predict their opponent to be none other than the division rival Cubs.

Those games would be in Milwaukee, where the crowd you know will be fired up to play against the Cubs and their manager. Instead of falling short in the postseason like the Brewers have every year since 2018, manager Pat Murphy will lead the Crew to victory and eliminate the Cubs and his old boss. The Brewers will end their playoff series losing streak and from there, momentum will build potentially for an even deeper playoff run. We've seen it happen before with this playoff setup.

As much as I would love to predict a Brewers World Series, and hey, maybe this is the year, just getting a playoff series win would be a great success and feels bold enough already based on recent history. Getting that series win and eliminating the Cubs at the same time would be even sweeter.