Brewers: 8 Observations from the Crew's 2023 ZiPS projections

2023 Brewers ZiPS projections observation #3: Pitcher comparisons

In addition to some interesting batter comparisons, some Milwaukee Brewers pitchers were compared to some very big names as well. Starting with Corbin Burnes, who is entering his age 28 season, you saw a comparison to Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. Verlander at 28 was an All-Star, won the Cy Young and the MVP award in the American League, leading the AL in two categories and all of baseball in seven.

Cole at 28 didn't have quite the accolades of Verlander but still finished with an AL best 2.50 ERA and a ridiculous 316 strikeouts. If Burnes puts up numbers like those two this season, there might need to be a statue erected before the season is over.

There were two relievers for the 2023 Milwaukee Brewers compared to former Brewers relievers, the first being Devin Williams. He was compared to Francisco Rodriguez, better known as "K-Rod," who was on the ballot for the Hall of Fame this year, so anytime you're being compared to a player of that caliber it can only mean good things.

The second was Hoby Milner who I'll talk about more on the next slide.

2023 Brewers ZiPS projections observation #4: Bounce back for Keston Hiura

One thing that stood out to me glaringly is the bounce back projected for Keston Hiura and his power numbers. Fangraphs has a projection for Hiura to hit 21 home runs in 2023, a 50% increase over what he hit in 2022.

I'm not sure anyone has an idea what the Milwaukee Brewers have in store for Keston Hiura in 2023, assuming he's around by the time the season begins, but if he's putting the ball in play with a fair amount of those balls going over the fence, I think that's a projection Brewers fans can live with.

2023 Brewers ZiPS projections observation #5: Big year in store for Hoby Milner

As previously mentioned, the other reliver comparison I was interested in was Hoby Milner. The 2023 Milwaukee Brewers ZiPS projections have the lefty compared to Zach Duke. Milner was an unsung hero for the Brewers last year and is projected, rightfully so, to have a more important role on the team in 2023.

Duke did only play for the Brewers for one season back in 2014, but it was a productive one. In 2014 he had a 5-1 record and 2.45 ERA across 58.2 innings with 74 strikeouts, arguably one of the best years of his career.

FanGraphs' ZiPS projections suggest we'll get an even better version of Milner in 2023 than we got in 2022. Milner is projected to have a lower ERA in fewer appearances and fewer innings than 2022. To me, that suggests that Milner will do less long relief in the middle innings and is moving towards a more back of the bullpen role.

Is it possible that Milner steps up to the role Brad Boxberger occupied for the last two seasons? Will we see Milner more in the 7th and 8th innings as opposed to the 5th and 6th? Time will tell.

2023 Brewers ZiPS projections observation #6: Bullpen better than originally thought?

The Milwaukee Brewers infamously traded Josh Hader at last season's trade deadline and the bullpen never recovered. Now in 2023, the Brewers will no longer have Hader, Boxberger or Taylor Rogers. They have, however, retained Matt Bush and added a slew of other potential relief pitchers in the Hunter Renfroe and Esteury Ruiz deals, among other transactions.

In 2022, the Brewers had a 3.94 bullpen ERA as a team, 7th in the National League. For 2023, the FanGraphs ZiPS projections several relievers below 3.90, including Williams, Milner, Bush, and Jake Cousins.

Also consider that Milwaukee has added Bryse Wilson and Wade Miley, the former of which the Brewers told to come ready to compete for a starting spot in the rotation. That means if the Crew can stay healthy, we may see some starters play as relievers.

2023 Brewers ZiPS projections observation #7: High praise for Aaron Ashby

Aaron Ashby may be the recipient of the best compliment of the 2023 Milwaukee Brewers ZiPS projections. At the beginning of the article, author Dan Szymborski declares that Aaron Ashby will be one of the best #5 starters in all of MLB, if not the best.

Ashby is projected to have a 4.00 ERA in 26 appearances, 18 of them starts, pitch 101.3 innings and throw 117 strikeouts compared to 47 walks. Those are pretty decent numbers from your fifth starting pitcher, no?

2023 Brewers ZiPS projections observation #8: 2nd base, solved?

The Brewers have been very quiet in free agency, with fans clamoring for the team to add either a second or third baseman to the team to fill in the role left vacant by the departure of Jace Peterson and Kolten Wong. The Brewers have done no such thing and may be content to move into the 2023 season with prospect Brice Turang and newly acquired Abraham Toro who came over in the Wong trade.

Fangraphs ZiPS projections for the Brewers in 2023 seem to echo that sentiment. The projections read for a pretty solid combination at second base between Toro and Turang. Together the pair is projected for 23 home runs (14 from Toro) and 116 RBI. Brice Turang is also projected for 17 stolen bases, the second highest on the team to only speedster Garrett Mitchell.

All in all, the 2023 season will for certain see a lot of new faces in Brewers jerseys. How they perform will certainly be a hot topic of conversation before, during, and after the season.