Brewers: Grading GM Matt Arnold's First Year On The Job

Offseason Trades: A

The bulk of Matt Arnold's offseason work was done on the trade market and he did an outstanding job on that front.

The Hunter Renfroe trade has panned out pretty well. Renfroe struggled with the Angels while Elvis Peguero has evolved into a trusted setup man for Craig Counsell out of the bullpen. Janson Junk made one start in the big leagues this year and Adam Seminaris spent the year in Double-A. Renfroe has been worth -0.6 bWAR this year while Peguero has been worth 0.9 bWAR. That's a good win for Arnold.

The Kolten Wong trade was a wash. Wong was bad for Seattle while Jesse Winker was bad for the Brewers. The trade cleared room for Brice Turang and gave the Brewers what should've been really good odds of a bounce-back season from Winker. It made a lot of sense and everything pointed to a return to form from Winker. It just never materialized but the process from Arnold was correct. Abraham Toro's been the best piece of this trade but he's seen limited big league time.

The crown jewel of Matt Arnold's first year in charge is the William Contreras trade. The A's and Braves were working on a trade of another catcher, Sean Murphy. Atlanta wanted Murphy but wanted to clear William Contreras at the same time. The A's didn't want Contreras because they wanted to clear Murphy to make room for Shea Langeliers. So Matt Arnold jumped in and said "I'll take Contreras" and helped complete the deal. Arnold somehow finagled only sending out Esteury Ruiz, his 5th best outfielder prospect for Contreras, plus Joel Payamps, who's been the Brewers' 8th inning setup man, plus a minor league piece in Justin Yeager.

Arnold made a couple more minor trades, adding Owen Miller from Cleveland and then sending out Justin Topa for minor league pitcher Joseph Hernandez. Earlier in the offseason was the trade for Javy Guerra, who didn't pan out, but it wasn't a bad idea to try.

MLB Draft: A

There was a clear change in philosophy with the Brewers in this year's MLB Draft. While the scouting director, Tod Johnson, makes the selections, the GM has a big say in what happens. We saw the Draft go in one direction under David Stearns, and the change to Arnold making the decisions was the only change made in the front office, which is the only explanation for why the Draft philosophy changed.

The Brewers did an excellent job in Arnold's first draft at the helm, gathering some blue chip talent and maximizing their bonus pool, finishing just $29 shy of hitting the 5% overage threshold. Selecting Brock Wilken in the 1st round gave the Crew the power hitting corner infield prospect they've been lacking in their system for years. He's a completely different type of hitter than they've targeted under Stearns, but still a very exciting player.

Josh Knoth, a high school pitcher, also is a high-upside arm talent the Brewers took. Prep pitchers is a demographic they've generally avoided. Mike Boeve in the 2nd round is a pure contact hitter with some pop that brings some upside as well at a corner infield spot.

The blue chippers were selected on Day 2 though, taking high upside talents with Eric Bitonti in the 3rd round and then Cooper Pratt in the 6th round. Both were consensus 2nd round picks with some even pegging Pratt as a first round talent. These are exciting young hitters that Arnold brought into the organization.

Then on Day 3, the Brewers took a bunch of upside plays on high school picks that few expected them to actually sign, but the Brewers were smart with their available money and spread it out enough to sign several Day 3 picks, adding even more young talent to the farm system. The Brewers were one of the big winners of the Draft this year.

In-Season Moves/Trade Deadline: A-

Matt Arnold has been excellent at supplementing this team over the course of the season. He brought in a couple of optionable bullpen arms early on, bringing in Bennett Sousa and J.B. Bukauskas off waivers. Then he acquired Trevor Megill from the Twins, who's been solid for the Crew.

Arnold seized an opportunity to add Darin Ruf back in May when Luke Voit was struggling and then hurt, and the Brewers were struggling to hit lefties. Ruf was a big help on that front before he cut up his knee running into a tarp.

In late May, Arnold signed Julio Teheran when his starting rotation was in dire straits due to injuries. Teheran came in and stabilized that group along with Colin Rea. He was excellent, especially in his first few starts. Teheran regressed after that, but by then the rotation was getting healthy and he helped get this team through a tough stretch that could've sunk them. The quick action of Arnold to bring in Teheran was huge.

There were some other position player additions that helped. Jahmai Jones was brought in and made an impact on day one. He didn't do much else after day one but his game-winning three run double was a key part of this season. Raimel Tapia had some moments but overall underwhelmed and was just a placeholder until Sal Frelick was ready.

Now, on to the Trade Deadline. Things started with the addition of Carlos Santana from the Pirates. Santana's been a great piece, slugging nine homers, providing excellent leadership and defense, and providing an upgrade at a first base position that was in desperate need of it. All Arnold gave up was minor league prospect Jhonny Severino, who wasn't even among Milwaukee's top 30 prospects.

Arnold followed that up with a trade for Mets outfielder Mark Canha. Canha's been the best addition of the Deadline, quickly posting a 1.2 WAR, the best of any bat acquired in July with his new team. Arnold gave up Justin Jarvis, a solid pitching prospect that was a late bloomer and his value was peaking. Canha was supposed to solidify right field, a black hole offensively for Milwaukee, but he's done more than that and has been an excellent all around addition.

The injury to Justin Wilson necessitated a trade for another reliever, specifically a lefty. Matt Arnold went out and got Andrew Chafin from Arizona in exchange for Peter Strzelecki. Strzelecki was solid early for Milwaukee but began to struggle before being traded. He's only appeared in one game for Arizona since the deal. Chafin has struggled to a 7.82 ERA in a Brewers uniform. This trade has been a bust.

Arnold followed up the deadline with signing Josh Donaldson at the end of August, bringing in a power bat with experience to help at third base and Donaldson has been as advertised. The cratering of the Chafin trade brings this grade from an A to an A-minus, but only barely.

Overall: A-minus

Overall, Matt Arnold's first year at the helm has gone very well. He's made some moves that went under the radar at the time but have been a big help to this Brewers team over the course of the season. He's also made some moves that everyone knew was a great call at the time and turned out to be true.

No GM is ever going to bat 1.000, whether they're in their first year or their 20th in charge. Matt Arnold had some misses. The Jesse Winker miss has been costly to this team, although again the idea made a lot of sense and there was no reason to think Winker would crater like he has this year. The Chafin trade was also a bust that's continuing to cause some problems.

Still, the positives far outwieght the few negatives. William Contreras has been exactly what this team needed and that trade is on par with the Yelich trade that Stearns made. Elvis Peguero, Joel Payamps, Bryse Wilson, and Trevor Megill have all been excellent out of the bullpen. Wade Miley brings a big boost to the rotation while Julio Teheran and Colin Rea were great depth additions. Even with Chafin's struggles, the two bats Arnold got at the Deadline for a pretty low prospect cost have been just what the doctor ordered.

Combine those moves with the excellent Draft haul and the Brewers on the verge of clinching the division, and it's an A-grade first year in charge for Matt Arnold. Coming into the year, few thought this Brewers team would find themselves 20 games over .500 and starting to run away with the division, but it's happening because of the moves Arnold has made. The organization appears to be in good hands after the departure of David Stearns.

Arnold making a public statement earlier this year, too, that he wouldn't trade Corbin Burnes at the Deadline after all the speculation following last year's trade of Josh Hader was an important step as well. It's a refreshing change after the constant GM-speak that Stearns gave over the years.

Now Arnold may face some tough decisions on that front in year two in charge. With Burnes, Willy Adames, and Brandon Woodruff all a year away from free agency, he may have to make a tough decision regarding those players this winter. How will he position this team for 2024? That's what the front office is working on right now, but year one was a success for Arnold.