Brewers How the Diamondbacks Lineup Has Fared Against Corbin Burnes

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Leading into Game 1 of the 2023 National League Wild Card Series, the Diamondbacks bring a lineup full of youth into a matchup with one of the game's best starters, Corbin Burnes.

In Burnes' career against Arizona, he sits with a 2-1 record and a 3.77 ERA, including a few great outings and two blowup starts. In 2023, Burnes has kept that reputation vs. Arizona, as he had one 8-inning start in early April against Arizona, allowing no runs and striking out eight, but he also had a blowup start in June. On June 19th, Burnes allowed seven runs on eight hits while only striking out three in five innings.

As we know, Burnes makes heavy usage of his cutter (55.4%), as well as mixing in a curveball (17.6), changeup (11.2%), slider (8.5%), and sinker (7.7%), at all below 20%. Burnes has had a bit of trouble with command of his cutter this season, and he will need to be the Burnes we have seen in the second half (2.71) for the Brewers to sustain playoff success in 2023.

Using the Diamondbacks' projected lineup from Fangraphs for 2023, let's take a dive into what we should expect tonight from Burnes and the Diamondbacks.

RF Corbin Carroll:

If you don't know him already, Corbin Carroll has turned himself into a household name and a rookie-of-the-year frontrunner for Arizona this season. He has slashed .285/.362/.868 on the season with 25 home runs and 54 stolen bases and is coming into the series with a .308 batting average over his past 30 games. Since Carroll came into the league, Burnes has had his number, holding him to one single in nine at-bats with three strikeouts.

Carroll struggles big-time against cutters, hitting .159 on the season against them, and his expected batting average against these pitches is only .216. His next worst pitch to hit is a curveball, which is Burnes' second-most used pitch, with a .224 xBA on the season against it. Expect Burnes to attack Carroll heavily with his cutter, and Burnes should the upper hand in this matchup.

2B Ketel Marte:

Ketel Marte has been the household name from Diamondbacks teams in the recent past, and for good reason. Over seven seasons with the Diamondbacks dating back to 2017, Marte is averaging a .830 OPS, has 104 home runs, and made the NL All-Star Team in 2019. This season has been no different, as he has slashed .276/.358/.844 with 25 home runs. 82 RBI, and 9 triples. Ketel Marte has been okay against Burnes in his career, with three hits in 11 at-bats, but all three of his hits are singles. He has struck out only once against Burnes and has walked one time.

This season, Marte is struggling to hit cutters consistently but has slugged a bit against it, posting a .226 batting average but slugging .403. Marte struggles against changeups and sliders, which Burnes both uses, whiffing 30.4% and 29.4% against these pitches, respectively. If Burnes is able to get ahead in the count and command his cutter against Marte, he should have success in this matchup.

LF Tommy Pham:

As the Diamondbacks were in a position to contend at the deadline this year, they went and traded for the bat of Tommy Pham to give them a big right-handed bat in their lineup. Pham was hitting to the tune of a .820 OPS in his early-season success with the Mets but hasn't been nearly as good with Arizona. He has seen this OPS drop over 100 points after moving west, as his .719 mark with the Diamondbacks shows a bit of struggle.

Pham has a small sample size against Burnes, only seeing him for five plate appearances in his career, and grabbing a single and a walk in these times up. Pham also struggles with cutters, but his expected stats show a bit of a different story. While he is only hitting .207 with a .414 SLG against these pitches, his xBA sits at .249 and xSLG at .439. Where Burnes can get to him is by using his changeup, as Pham has had a history of problems with this pitch. This season, Pham is hitting .143 with a 40.9% whiff rate and a 33.3 strikeout rate on changeups. Pham also struggles at hitting cutters, striking out 34.1% of the time he has seen this pitch.

1B Christian Walker:

Christain Walker has been the big bat in Arizona's lineup the past couple of years, hitting 69 home runs over his last two seasons, and an OPS over .820 in this two-year span. While he hits home runs at a very high rate, he also strikes out often, with 131 K's in 2022 and 127 this year. Walker is struggling coming into this series, hitting only .208 with five home runs in his past 30 games.

Walker's three hits against Burnes are two singles and a double, and he has struck out and walked once each. One tough note about Christian Walker is that he hits cutters very well. He has a .286 batting average and a .667 SLG against cutters this season, which makes for a tough matchup against Burnes.

Burnes' best bet against Walker is to stick to a slider and curveball-heavy arsenal, as the xBA's both sit under .235 for these pitches. Walker also strikes out at 33.3% against cutters but doesn't have any other glaring weaknesses in how he attacks individual pitches.

CF Alek Thomas

While Alek Thomas hasn't had a history of career success in MLB at the age of 23, he does have a good history against Burnes. While Thomas has a career .230/.274/.633 line in Arizona, he is 3 for 8 with a home run in a small sample size against Burnes.

A big reason for Burnes' struggle against Thomas is his success hitting the cutter. Thomas is hitting .313 with a .719 SLG against this pitch over his career, and his home run against Burnes came on this pitch. Thomas struggles heavily against curveballs, changeups, and sinkers, striking out over 20% of the time and having under a .180 batting average against these pitches, including a .130 against curveballs. To have success against Thomas, Burnes will have to lean on his secondary pitches.

DH Lourdes Gurriel Jr.:

The Diamondbacks acquired Lourdes Gurriel Jr. as the secondary piece in one of the biggest trades of the 2023 offseason, sending Daulton Varsho to Toronto in order to clear up some of their outfield logjam. Gurriel had a great first half of 2023, leading to his final stat line ending at .261/.309/.463 with a .772 OPS. Gurriel hasn't seen Burnes much in his career, with most of it coming in Toronto, but has had success in a small sample size. Gurriel has a .400/.500/.600 slash in five at-bats against Corbin Burnes, with a double, a strikeout, and a hit by pitch.

While the matchup numbers are a bit concerning, I think Burnes still has the matchup in his favor due to Gurriel's struggles with Burnes' top pitches. Gurriel has a .179 batting average against cutters in 2023, and if Burnes has the command of his cutter tonight, he should win this matchup based off of that. Gurriel also has issues with the slider, striking out 22.2% of the time against this pitch.

C Gabriel Moreno:

The biggest piece in the aforementioned Varsho trade that came over to Arizona was former top prospect, Gabriel Moreno. Moreno has been a sparkplug in the games that he has played for Arizona, as the Diamondbacks had a winning percentage jump by over 300 points in games he has played this season. Moreno also comes into this series swinging a very hot bat, with a .884 OPS in his last 30 games and has put up 4.3 bWAR this season.

Burnes has had Moreno's number in nine at-bats, holding him to two singles and striking him out three times, while holding him to a .444 OPS. Moreno has hit Burnes' primary pitches pretty well this season, with a .280 batting average against cutters, a .276 against curveballs, and a .324 against changeups, but he has one big hole in his swing, which is his whiff rate against these cutters. Moreno whiffs 34% of the time against cutters and strikes out 35.7% of the time, which should be a great thing for Burnes' success against him.

3B Jace Peterson:

In a depth trade with the Oakland Athletics at the 2023 trade deadline, the Diamondbacks brought over former Brewer Jace Peterson to play a utility role for their club. He's struggled to get his bat going since coming to Arizona, hitting only .183 with a .534 OPS with the Diamondbacks. Due to Peterson playing in Milwaukee for most of Corbin Burnes' time in the majors, he has never seen him in a major league game.

While there is no head-to-head record between these two, Peterson is a very good cutter hitter, putting up a .320 batting average on those pitches this season. Burnes will likely stay away from this pitch against Peterson and defer to his offspeed stuff, as Peterson has not had success against the offspeed that Burnes brings to the table in 2023. Peterson has a whiff percentage over 31% on all three of the offspeed pitches that Corbin utilizes, striking out 36% of the time against the slider and 28.9% of the time against the curveball. While Burnes doesn't have any history against Jace Peterson, he has the tools to get him out.

SS Geraldo Perdomo:

After having one of the most surprising first halves in all of baseball, including a trip to the 2023 All-Star Game in Seattle, Geraldo Perdomo has cooled down a bit and regressed to a below-average hitter. Perdomo is sitting .246/.353/.359 for a .712 OPS with six home runs. Perdomo is one of the three hitters for Arizona who has an extra-base hit against Burnes, collecting a double and a single in seven at-bats against Corbin.

He has been susceptible to the strikeout against Burnes, striking out twice, but still has a good overall performance in these at-bats, with a .804 OPS. Perdomo's success against cutters has a lot to do with this, as he was a .361 hitter against these pitches in 2023. The slider-curveball combo will be big for Burnes to get Perdomo out, as he strikes out almost 40% of the time against both of these pitches and has xBA's of .159 and .162, respectively.

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