Brewers shortstop Willy Adames has made it clear that he would love a contract extension to stay in Milwaukee for the rest of his career. While there were some initial conversations, those have tailed off and it's looking like the Brewers won't be extending his contract beyond 2024.
As sad as that is, all may not be lost. After all, he's still in Milwaukee so there's still a chance, however slim, that he could stick around.
If the MLB insiders over at The Athletic are correct, then agreeing to an extension with Willy Adames should be easy for the Milwaukee Brewers.
The Athletic projects Willy Adames to agree to a contract extension that the Brewers would be crazy not to do and Adames would be crazy to accept.
During "Extension Week" over at The Athletic, they looked at what possible contract extensions would look like for several players across the league, including Willy Adames.
They start by noting that Adames performed better than Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Bo Bichette, and Jeremy Pena last season. Since arriving in Milwaukee, he's been the 7th-best shortstop in baseball. That's an elite shortstop. Corey Seager got big time money two offseasons ago, Correa just got big money this offseason. Several other shortstops that are comparable to Adames, including Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson also got big contracts last offseason.
Adames is slated to enter free agency at age 29, which should put him in a prime position to land a very long term contract. The Athletic pegs Adames for somewhere in the vicinity of a $24MM average annual value. That sounds about right.
But what do they think Adames will sign for in an extension?
The insiders said a 5 year, $92MM contract extension could work for both sides.
Did Mark Attanasio write that? The Brewers would absolutely jump at the chance to sign Adames, an elite shortstop to a five year, $92MM deal, a contract just $12MM more than what they paid a then-32 year old Lorenzo Cain five years ago.
But Willy Adames' agent wasn't born yesterday. There's no way in the world Adames would accept a contract like that. Given the length of contracts that shortstops received this winter that Adames is fairly comparable to, his youth being just 29 as he enters free agency, and the leverage he has, there is no incentive for him to sign that kind of deal.
Dansby Swanson got over $170MM over seven years as a 29 year old. Adames is better than Swanson.
There isn't a chance in the world Adames is signing for anything less than nine figures. You're at a minimum $100MM starting point.
Also, the math doesn't even check out here. The Athletic said a $24MM AAV is a real possibility. Yet, 5 years and $92MM doesn't equate to a $24MM AAV. That's an $18.4MM AAV. That's a massive discount that Adames has no reason to accept, especially over so few years. He could accept a discount on the AAV if the Brewers go for a longer deal. 5 years won't cut it.
Five years at $24MM per year comes out to $120MM total. That's closer, but still not enough. Adames is going to get a minimum of seven years for any extension to even be close to being worth signing. He has to get a minimum of $150MM for an extension to be worth signing.
If all it took was five years and $92MM, the deal would be done already. But it's not, because it's going to take a lot more than that, and it's crazy that the MLB insiders at The Athletic suggested that this could work for both sides. For the Brewers, sure, for Adames, no way.