Brewers Playoff Odds Looking Good Heading Into Big Series Against the Reds

The playoff odds over at FanGraphs appear to be in the Crew's favor.
Willy Adames, Milwaukee Brewers
Willy Adames, Milwaukee Brewers / Patrick McDermott/GettyImages

With a week left in July and the trade deadline right around the corner, teams are deciding whether to be buyers or sellers. That status is, of course, based on to whether said teams believe they have a chance to make this year's playoffs.

The Milwaukee Brewers are one of the teams that should be buyers because of their current playoff positioning. Though they just dropped a home series to the NL-leading Braves, the Crew are still first in the NL Central with a 55-45 record, a half game against the Reds, who come into town for a big series starting tonight.

Now not every team that ends up buying at the trade deadline actually ends up making the playoffs. But according to the good people over at FanGraphs, the Brewers have a better chance than most at making it to the postseason, and that's before any trade deadline moves.

The Brewers' playoff odds are looking good heading into their series against the Reds.

Heading into tonight's game, FanGraphs gives the Brewers a 72.9% chance to make the 2023 playoffs. That comes with a 65.0% chance to win the NL Central division and a small, but still possible 2.4% chance to win the World Series.

Milwaukee is given a much better chance at making the playoffs than the Reds, who FanGraphs has at 37.8% to make it in. Cincinnati is also being given just a 24.0% chance at taking the division from the Brewers, though as we've seen since Elly De La Cruz, they certainly still should not be taken lightly.

Those are the only two teams from the NL Central being given really any bit of a chance to make this year's postseason. FanGraphs gives the third best chance to the Cubs at 12.9% with the Cardinals behind them at 5.1%. The Pirates, who led the division for a while earlier this season, have fallen all the way from grace and are being given just a 0.2% chance to make the playoffs.

Among National League teams, the Brewers are considered the third most likely team to make the postseason. They sit behind just the Braves, who FanGraphs is already giving a perfect 100% chance to make the playoffs, and the Dodgers, who are close behind at 97.8%

The Brewers' good chances are impressive considering they have one of the weaker offenses in baseball and have a division foe who is currently right with them in the standings. That puts a ton of faith, then, in their pitching and defense, which admittedly have been quite good this season.

Of course, playoff odds don't propel a team to the postseason, performance on the field does. And the Brewers will need a much better performance down the stretch than they got last season if they want to start a new playoff streak in 2023. Regardless, the odds currently appear to be in their favor.

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