The Atlanta Braves are massive favorites at home on Saturday against the Milwaukee Brewers despite the fact that the team is just 4-6 in its last 10 games.
That could leave some value on Milwaukee, although the team hasn’t exactly been great on offense in 2023.
Atlanta is one of the best offenses in the Majors, but the team has a struggling starting pitcher on the mound on Saturday.
All-Star Bryce Elder (7-2, 3.30 ERA) has a Fielding Independent Pitching of 4.27 on the season, and he’s been brutal in July, posting a 7.71 ERA in four starts.
He takes on Brewers starter Julio Teheran – a former Brave – who is 2-4 with a 3.75 ERA on the season. He’s coming off a great outing against these Braves, allowing one run and three hits across six innings in what was eventually a loss for Milwaukee.
Brewers vs. Braves odds, run line and total
Brewers vs. Braves prediction and pick
I can't trust Elder in this matchup given how poorly he’s pitched in July.
Here’s a look at some of the youngster’s stats this month:
- 18.2 innings pitched
- 24 hits
- 9 walks
- 18 runs (16 earned)
- 7.71 ERA
- 6.76 FIP
- Opponents are hitting .308/.375/.539 against him
Even though he is an All-Star, Elder isn’t pitching close to one right now, and Teheran has rebounded from his three-start stretch in late June and early July where he struggled.
The Brewers’ righty had a 1.53 ERA through his first six starts, so I think he can show more of the same from his last outing against Atlanta.
The Braves are still the better team offensively, so I’m going to give myself a little cushion here and take Milwaukee to cover the run line as a massive underdog.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.