Brewers vs. Cubs prediction and odds for Monday, Aug. 28 (How to bet the total)

The Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs open this week with arguably the biggest series in baseball given their race in the NL Central division.

Chicago is four games back right now, but that’s because the Brewers have won eight consecutive games, putting them in a great spot to make the playoffs in some capacity this season.

Chicago has been solid over its last 10 games, winning seven of them, which has moved the team into the No. 2 wild card spot in the National League.

This series could swing the division for Milwaukee if it picks up a sweep, but all of these games should be solid matchups since both teams have been hot. 

On monday, we have an interesting pitching matchup between Chicago’s Jameson Taillon and Milwaukee’s Wade Miley. 

Brewers vs. Cubs probable pitchers for Monday, Aug. 28

• Brewers: Wade Miley (lefty) – 6-3, 3.18 ERA
• Cubs: Jameson Taillon (righty) – 7-8, 5.60 ERA

Taillon has struggled in his first season in Chicago, but his Fielding Independent Pitching is nearly a run lower than his ERA. Is that a sign that he’s due for some positive regression tonight?

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Brewers vs. Cubs odds, run line and total

Brewers vs. Cubs prediction and pick

While both teams need this game for the division race, I’m going to stay away from betting on a side in this matchup.

Milwaukee has fared well in Miley’s 17 outings this season, going 10-7, but the lefty is due for some regression since his FIP is all the way up at 4.55. He’s allowed three or more runs in three of his last six starts while only going more than five innings in two of those outings.

Back on July 4, the Cubbies tagged Miley for nine hits and four runs in just five innings of work. I don’t know if that happens again, but with the total at just nine runs, a game in that ballpark would be a great sign for the OVER.

As for Taillon, he’s been pretty awful in 2023 outside of a few starts in July. 

Since the calendar flipped to August, the Cubs righty has returned to his early-season ways, posting a 6.08 ERA in his last five starts. Taillon has also allowed at least four runs in three straight outings. 

In his lone start against Milwaukee this season, Taillon allowed three runs and seven hits in four innings of work. 

Both of these bullpens have ERAs under 4.00 on the season, but I wouldn’t be shocked if this game is nearing seven or eight combined runs by the time the starters exit. 

The OVER is the right play on Monday night. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.