Brewers vs. Cubs prediction and odds for Thursday, March 30 (New Year, Same Corbin Burnes)

Welcome back to the MLB, it’s Opening Day and that means we once again get to see baseball at beautiful Wrigley Field.

On Thursday, the Chicago Cubs are hosting the Milwaukee Brewers to kick off the season both teams will look to improve on their less than stellar 2022 campaigns. The Cubs won 74 games which was somehow good enough to finish third in the terrible NL Central and the Brewers won 86, but missed the Wild Card. 

The good news for Milwaukee is that they have their ace back and he’s on the mound for Opening Day. Let’s see the odds for Milwaukee and Chicago with Corbin Burnes and Marcus Stroman on the mound. 

Brewers vs. Cubs odds, run line and total

Run Line: 

• Brewers -1.5 (+150)
• Cubs +1.5 (-175)

Moneyline:

• Brewers -127
• Cubs +120

Brewers vs. Cubs prediction and pick

Handicapping games at the beginning of any season is difficult because we just don’t have a lot of information and so much can change from year to year in the MLB.

However, I’m pretty comfortable saying that Corbin Burnes is going to be incredible again in 2023. That’s a limb I’m very comfortable going out on. 

In 2022 Burnes was 89th percentile in strikeout rate, 95th in whiff rate, and 87th in chase rate, his expected ERA was 3.05.

His pitches were getting barreled a bit more than the year before and he was getting hit slightly harder, but he was still a top of the line ace and is a Cy Young candidate again. 

On the other side, Marcus Stroman had a 3.50 ERA, but that was misleading. He finished with a 3.94 xERA, and an xBA that was in the 27th percentile in the MLB.

His hard hit percentage was 40.7, so if the wind is blowing out, the Brew Crew could rack up some early season home runs. 

Remember when Yeli vs. Beli was a thing? That was fun, and we’ll get to see it a lot this season with Cody Bellinger on the Cubs. The only problem is neither guy has been great in a few years. Neither lineup excites me much, so I’ll just trust the better pitcher. 

Pick: Brewers -127

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change