Brewers vs. Mets prediction and odds for Thursday, June 29 (Trust Houser in Return to Rotation)

Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Adrian Houser (37)
Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Adrian Houser (37) / Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

So far in their three games in Queens the Milwaukee Brewers have only dropped one to the New York Mets including a 5-2 win yesterday. Today Milwaukee will try to take the series win and launch themselves back into the division lead. The Brewers are second in the NL Central at 42-38 while the Mets find themselves in fourth in the East with a record of 36-44. 

On paper it looks like a tough task as the Brewers are underdogs against Max Scherzer and the Mets. Scherzer is 7-2 in 13 starts for New York with a 3.95 ERA and has won his last two starts. He will be opposed by 2-2 Adrian Houser who has a 4.02 ERA in nine outings, seven of them starts. Let’s take a look at the odds. 

Brewers vs. Mets odds, run line and total

Brewers vs. Mets prediction and odds

The Mets are favorites because of the name Max Scherzer, but in reality his numbers aren’t much better than Houser’s if they are at all. Scherzer has a 4.10 FIP with 12 home runs allowed, five have come across his last four starts, and 67 hits in 70.2 innings pitched. Houser on the other hand has a 3.97 FIP and is reentering the rotation after some struggles as a start at the end of May into the start of June. He has only allowed three home runs in 40.1 innings of work with 49 hits given up. 

Scherzer edges Houser out in terms of strikeout and walk rate, which is a big deal, but also something that can be weighed pretty heavily in the calculation fielding independent pitching and Houser still comes out ahead. The home runs are really what hurts Scherzer and with Rowdy Tellez and Willy Adames, the Brewers do have some pop in their lineup. 

The biggest difference will be in the backend of the pitching staff. In June the Brewers are 10th in pitching staff ERA while the Mets are 21st and for the season the Brewers rank 10 spots higher than the Mets in terms of bullpen ERA. The Mets likely should be slight favorites in this one because they are 9-4 in Scherzer’s starts, but the odds seem over inflated by name recognition and that means there is plenty of value betting on Milwaukee. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change