Brewers vs. Phillies prediction and odds for Thursday, July 20

Corbin Burnes was great last time out, but he hasn't done that much this year. Will Burnes throw another gem this afternoon in Philly?
Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Corbin Burnes (39)
Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) / Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY

Yesterday the Milwaukee Brewers evened this series with the Philadelphia Phillies led by three hits and two RBI from William Contreras. That sets up the rubber match today with 8-5 Corbin Burnes on the mound with his 3.73 ERA this season for the Brewers against Taijuan Walker who will come in at 11-3 with an even 4.00 ERA. This will be the 20th start of the year for both Burnes and Walker. 

Coming into this rubber match, the Brewers are 53-43 and the Phillies are 42-43 after the loss yesterday. The Brewers lead the NL Central while the Phillies are stuck in a battle for the third and final Wild Card spot. Let’s get into the odds for the series finale. 

Brewers vs. Phillies odds, run line and total

Brewers vs. Phillies prediction and pick

These two teams have played two games to basically no separation and that makes sense considering their near identical records. This one could come down to which team gets a better start from their starting pitchers. The Phillies offense is a bit more reliable, but not by a whole lot and their bullpen ERA’s are nearly identical at 3.85 and 3.86. So, let’s focus on the pitchers and see if we can find an edge in the matchup. 

Burnes was excellent last time out with six scoreless innings and a season high 13 strikeouts against the Reds. He has a 4.09 FIP which dropped from 4.29 after that 13 strikeout performance. He had a pretty disastrous start back on June 19, but since then he has a 2.92 ERA in four starts with 10.58 strikeouts per nine innings. However, over that stretch he has a .219 BABIP which typically isn’t very sustainable. 

Taijuan Walker also has a FIP higher than his ERA at 4.37 only; he wasn't excellent last time he took the mound. Walker gave up two runs, but only lasted five innings, he was good, not great. That’s kind of been the story for both of these starting pitchers this season, so the over feels like the best bet here.

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change