Brewers vs. Reds prediction and odds for Saturday, June 3 (Tellez and Brewers still slumping)

Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Rowdy Tellez (11)
Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Rowdy Tellez (11) / Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

It took 11 innings, but the Milwaukee Brewers took Game 1 of this weekend series over the Cincinnati Reds last night, 5-4. The Brewers maintained their half game lead in the NL Central and are 30-27 while Cincinnati is 26-31. The Reds have lost two in a row after winning five straight.

For Game 2 the Brewers will go for the series win with Colin Rea on the mound for his ninth start of the season against Graham Ashcraft. Rea comes in with a 4.89 ERA and a record of 2-3, while Ashcraft is 3-3 with a 5.55 ERA.

Let’s get into the odds for this NL Central matchup. 

Brewers vs. Reds odds, run line and total

Brewers vs. Reds prediction and pick

Graham Ascraft ended April with an ERA of 2.10, but May was very rough for him. He had back-to-back outings of five innings with seven runs on 10 hits which ballooned his ERA to where it belongs. Ashcraft’s FIP is under five, but his expected ERA is 5.03 and he has a 20th percentile strikeout rate that makes it hard to get outs. The 25-year-old also has a well below average whiff and chase rate with a 39th percentile walk rate, so his early season success was never going to last long. 

Colin Rea on the other side hasn’t had any type of success this season other than a 5.1 inning scoreless start on May 23 against Houston. Neither starting pitcher is reliable in this spot, but neither is Milwaukee’s offense.

The Brewers are 26th in runs scored over the last 15 days with a .622 OPS and 15 home runs. They’re still hitting the long ball, but their .274 OBP is 29th in the league over the stretch, so they haven’t had ducks on the pond often enough. Even over the last week their biggest power hitter, Rowdy Tellez had been abysmal with a .327 OPS and just two hits in his last 21 at-bats. The under is 3-0-1 in Milwaukee’s last four games and with a total set in the double digits, I like the under in this one. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change