Can this Brewers pitcher turn things around in the second half?

There were lofty expectations for Freddy Peralta heading into the 2024 season, and rightfully so. With the Brewers choosing to part with Corbin Burnes prior to Opening Day, Peralta was expected to take that leap into becoming the next true ace for the Milwaukee Brewers.

However, Peralta's first half of the 2024 MLB season was rather underwhelming. He's sporting an ERA over four coming out of the Midsummer Classic, and inconsistency with his command has led to a handful of blowup outings on several occasions this season.

With that said, there were still some bright spots for Peralta in the first half this year. He's doing a good job at limiting traffic on the base paths, and he's still been one of the top strikeout artists in the National League. There's no denying that when Peralta brings his best stuff to the mound, he has the potential to be one of the best pitchers in the National League.

The problem is Peralta hasn't been able to put it together for a full season in quite some time. Since earning his lone All-Star bid back in 2021, Peralta has struggled out of the gate, putting up subpar performances prior to the All-Star break. However, he's consistently bounced back in the second half of each of his last two seasons. The table below highlights this for Peralta, dating back to 2022.

As frustrating as it's been to watch Peralta's first half struggles, it's encouraging that he's been able to turn it around after the All-Star break in each of his last two seasons.

Starting with his 2022 season, Peralta followed up his 4.42 ERA in the first half of the season with an impressive 2.75 ERA following the Midsummer Classic that year. While his strikeout totals dipped in the second half of the year, his improved run prevention was extremely promising.

More recently, Peralta had a sensational turnaround just a season ago as well. After posting an ERA near five while walking nearly 10 percent of batters prior to the All-Star break in 2023, he flipped the script and became one of the top pitchers in the National League in the second half of the season.

From July 11 through the end of the 2023 regular season, Peralta was fourth in the National League in ERA; third in fWAR; second in FIP; second in opponent batting average; second in K/9; first in SIERA; and first in strikeout rate.

Given his spectacular finish to the 2023 season, expectations were high for Peralta heading into this year's Opening Day. While many thought that momentum would carry over through the offseason, that has simply not been the case thus far for Peralta.

It's been a bumpy season thus far, but are better days ahead for Peralta?

As mentioned earlier, Peralta is carrying a 4.11 ERA out of the All-Star break, and inconsistency hindered his ability to put together a complete first half. However, there are aspects to his performance that yield promise.

For starters, Peralta has still been one of the top strikeout artists in the game this season. He's rocking a 30.1% strikeout rate, which is similar to his mark from a season ago and is currently the fifth-best in the National League. Likewise, he's fourth in the NL in K/9 at 11.36.

On a more granular level, he's still rocking one of the best overall whiff rates in baseball at 32.2%, which sits in the 90th percentile, according to Baseball Savant. What's more, his zone contact rate has actually dropped a full percent from a season ago and is at the second-lowest mark of his career (74.7%).

Not only is Peralta still doing a good job at generating swing-and-miss, but his quality of contact metrics haven't changed much from a season ago either. His average exit velocity of 86.8 mph is even lower than it was last season, and both his hard-hit rate and barrel rate are in line with where they were a season ago.

While projecting second half regression is never easy, these types of metrics can help paint a picture on what kind of season it has been for a struggling player. In Peralta's case, the statistics indicate that better days could be on the horizon.

Combine the encouraging quality of contact metrics with his consistent ability to minimize traffic on the base paths, and there's a reason why his underlying metrics are so much more encouraging than his actual ERA of 4.11. He's currently sporting an expected ERA (xERA) of 3.74, a FIP of 3.69, and a SIERA of 3.31.

With that being said, Peralta's fastball production will need to see a major improvement in order for him to post better results after the All-Star break. His entire arsenal hinges off the success of his four-seam, but the pitch has taken a step back to this point in the season.

When compared to previous seasons, not only is Peralta's four-seam fastball getting hit more often this season, but it has been hit harder as well. The opponent batting average against the pitch has increased 25 points from a season ago, and it's a very similar story in terms of slugging percentage and wOBA.

Likewise, the expected metrics on his pitch are equally as concerning. For a pitch that had a Run Value of 12 last season, according to Baseball Savant, that number has dropped to just one in 2024.

It's been a mixed bag of performances for Peralta so far. His first season as the Crew's No. 1 starter hasn't gone as planned, but there's reason to believe he can get back to his ace-level of production after the All-Star break. He can be one of the most exciting arms to watch when he's on his game, and as the leader of this pitching staff, the Crew will lean on Peralta to help them defend their division crown down the stretch this year.