Grading the Milwaukee Brewers first round picks from the last five years

The next big milestone of the 2024 Milwaukee Brewers season is officially here. The MLB Draft begins today and the first round kicks off just hours from now at 5pm this evening. The Brewers will be on the clock for the first time with the 17th overall pick.

After several years of first round picks not working out particularly well, the Brewers have done much better in that regard in recent years. Three former first rounders have seen time on the MLB roster here in 2024 while other recent picks seem like they have a good chance of contributing in future seasons.

As we draw near to finding out who the newest first round picks of the Brewers organization will be (they have two on account of the Competitive Balance A pick they received from the Orioles in the Corbin Burnes trade), it's time to take a look back and grade the last five years of first round picks by Milwaukee. Grades will be based on a mixture of value, fit, and performance, both in the minors and majors (if applicable).

2019 - LHP Ethan Small, 28th overall

For the first time in five years, the Brewers used a non-competitive balance first round pick to select a pitcher back in 2019. The pick ended up being left-hander Ethan Small out of the University of Mississippi State.

Small wasn't one of those pitchers with a blow-you-away, high velocity fastball, but he had a solid enough overall repertoire, led by his changeup, that allowed him to be dominant in college, finishing as the conference's pitcher of the year in 2019.

The southpaw breezed through the Brewers minor league system on his way to his first MLB start in 2022 on Memorial Day against the Cubs. The start didn't go the greatest as he gave up a pair of runs and took 69 pitches to get just eight outs. Things largely went downhill from there.

Small would start giving up more runs at Triple-A and eventually convert from starter to reliever as what worked for him at the lower levels just didn't seem to do so closer to the majors. He would make just four total appearances for the Brewers over two years, giving up 10 runs over 10.1 innings.

The Brewers would end up designating Small for assignment in February, eventually trading him to the Giants where he has been on the injured list all season. The pick made sense at the time as Milwaukee looked to build their rotation of the future, but in retrospect perhaps the makeup wasn't quite what was needed for a future MLB starter. Grade: C-

2020 - OF Garrett Mitchell, 20th overall

The following year, the Brewers started a philosophy of focusing on offensive players with on-base ability and athletic talent in the field. Their first player to fit this mold was outfielder Garrett Mitchell out of UCLA.

Mitchell looked to have true five-tool potential with the only question being around his power, an area where he showed the ability in practice but had yet to have it translate consistently in games. There were also questions from some teams about his ability to manage his diabetes condition, but that has had yet to be a concern at any point and it wasn't enough to scare away Milwaukee.

Once able to start his pro career in 2021 after the 2020 minor league season was cancelled due to Covid, Mitchell also quickly moved up the ranks. He moved so quickly that he actually ended up making his MLB debut at the end of 2022. He would be a spark for the Crew down the stretch, hitting .312 with a .832 OPS in 19 games.

Since then, it has been as series of unfortunate injuries for Mitchell. He would miss all but 19 games in 2023 due to a shoulder injury suffered diving into third base and just recently made his 2024 debut after suffering a hand injury during the spring. Since returning, he has played in nine games and is hitting .174 with a .562 OPS.

Mitchell's selection was another that made a lot of sense as Milwaukee was looking to build their outfield depth and got a player with a solid overall makeup. At his best, he can be a top of the order presence with his speed and on base ability, he just hasn't had the chance to show it. Time will tell whether that can still happen, but he needs to put the injury bug in the rearview first. Grade: B

2021 - OF Sal Frelick, 15th overall

As they continued to build the organization's outfield depth, the Brewers followed the same formula: draft a strong defensive outfielder who is extremely fast and has above average on base skills. This time that came in the form of Sal Frelick out of Boston College University.

Frelick moved his way up the organization as fast as Mitchell did, hitting the Triple-A level by the end of his 2022 season. While he wouldn't end up making his MLB debut that same season like his teammate did, he would do so the following year in 2023.

Frelick had quite the primetime debut, going 3-for-3 with two runs batted in and a pair of sensational catches in the outfield. He would finish the season slashing .246/.341/.351 in 57 games and would not find himself back down in the minors for the rest of the year.

The same has gone for 2024, where Frelick has been even better. He has upped his slash line to .273/.348/.350 in 86 games and has shown off his speed, stealing 14 bases in 16 attempts. He has also settled in as a solid defensive presence in the outfield with two devensive runs saved and being worth two outs above average on the season.

Frelick has been pretty much exactly as advertised, a speedy on base machine with above average defense. He's perhaps even been one of the more underrated parts of the 2024 Brewers, which is surprising considering his 1.4 fWAR so far. He's done everything you'd want the guy to do. Grade: A

2021 - INF Tyler Black, 33rd overall (Comp A pick)

Speaking of on base machines, the Brewers 100% got another one of those, though primarily on the infield this time, when it came to Tyler Black out of Wright State University in Ohio. The Canadian native had a whopping .468 on base percentage in three college seasons.

Black had his ascent through the system delayed early when he missed several games due to injury in 2022, mostly due to a fractured scapula, and was limited to 64 games which all ended up being at the High-A level. All that did was set the stage for his 2023 season.

The following year, Black was outstanding. In 123 games across Double-A and Triple-A, he would slash .284/.417/.513 with 18 homers and a whopping 55 stolen bases. It wouldn't end up earning him a call up that season, but fans figured that wouldn't be too far down the road.

Black has once again performed extremely well at Triple-A in 2024 but now has gotten a taste of the majors as well, hitting .235 with a .610 OPS in 12 games. Unfortunately, his stints at the MLB level have been short due to competition at his primary positions, first base and third base.

The Brewers have just recently started working Black into the outfield down in Nashville, which could eventually increase his opportunities in Milwaukee, but until then he may have to continue biding his time in the minors. He doesn't have much left to prove there, though, and appears to be part of the future for the Brewers in some capacity. Grade: A-

2022 - SS Eric Brown Jr, 27th overall

2022 saw the Brewers go underslot to pick another player with a strong record of on base ability in Eric Brown Jr. out of Coastal Carolina University. But while he had a history of success in college, there were reasons for concern based on one aspect of his hitting approach.

Brown Jr. had solid offensive production in college, as most first round picks do, and is a very gifted defensive shortstop, something the Brewers organization highly values. The questions came with his batting stance, which was unique and reminiscent of ex-Brewers manager Craig Counsell in ways.

The Brewers were insistent that they had no plans to mess with what worked for Brown Jr. in college, and at first that seemed to work just fine. He battled some injuries in his first full season as a pro in 2023 but finished the season slashing .255/.358/.354 with 39 steals in 72 games.

2024, on the other hand, has not gone nearly the way Brown Jr. would have wanted. In 63 games, all at Double-A Biloxi, he has slashed just .195/.281/.258 with nine doubles and a pair of home runs while stealing 14 bases in 21 attempts. To be fair, the month of July has gone much better for him with a .324/.415/.382 slash line in nine games.

Brown Jr. still has plenty of time to bounce back for his career at just 23 years old, but the fact of the matter is the Brewers may have gambled a bit when they selected a player with a funky stance who was ranked outside of the first round. The next year or two will be critical to see what type of player he will turn out to be. Grade: C+

2023 - RHP Josh Knoth, 33rd overall (Comp A pick)

Even rarer for the Brewers than drafting a power hitter in the first round is selecting a high school pitcher. In fact, the last time Milwaukee had done so was all the way back in 2014 when they took lefty Kodi Medeiros out of Hawaii 12th overall.

While it wasn't quite as high up in the first round this time, the Brewers finally did so again last summer when they took high schooler Josh Knoth out of New York. But then, this is a much better Brewers regime in terms of developing pitching talent than it was back then.

Knoth has two things the Brewers love out of their pitchers: a fastball that can reach the upper 90s and a breaking ball (a curveball in this case) with a boatload of spin. The fact that they were able to sign him below slot as part of an absolutely loaded 2023 draft class was an added bonus.

In his first year of pro ball at just 18 years old, Knoth is having as solid a season as one could expect for someone of his age. In 15 games, all starts, he is 3-5 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. He is holding opposing hitters to a .231 batting average and has a pretty impressive 10.8 K/9, though he is also walking batters at a 5.25 BB/9 rate.

It is still way to early to know how Knoth's career will end up trending, but at least it's off to a good start. So this one will have to be evaluated for the talent received at the position drafted and the price that was paid for that talent. In that case, there are few complaints to be had with this pick. Grade: A-