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How does Jackson Chourio stack up against previous Brewers right fielders?
Jackson Chourio is settling into right field quite nicely
Jackson Chourio has been on an absolute tear in the last month and first week of July. Chourio just had a 12 game hitting streak snapped in the Milwaukee Brewers finale with the Dodgers in LA. That hitting streak extended back to June 23rd when the Brewers were in San Diego.
Jackson Chourio was an absolute stud in the month of June and has not let up since the calendar turned to July. Since June 1st Chourio owns a .326 batting average, .378 on base percentage, .517 slugging percentage for a total .894 OPS.
Where will Jackson Chourio finish 2024 if he maintains that pace?
Jackson Chourio has 98 plate appearances in the last 28 games, a pace of 3.5 plate appearances per game. Based on the rates of home runs, walks and strikeouts during those 28 games we can add his stats from pre-June 1st and figure out where Chourio would finish the season if he keeps up the pace he's currently on.
With what he's done before June 1st and the pace he is on since, Chourio could be expected to finish with the following totals in the following categories: hits - 145, doubles - 23, home runs - 20, strikeouts - 111, walks - 39, stolen bases - 14, runs scored - 77 and runs batted in - 84. These would all be fantastic numbers for a 20 year old rookie to finish his first season in Major League Baseball and would garner him significant rookie of the year buzz.
How does that stack up against the Milwaukee Brewers right fielders of the past few years?
Stacking Chourio versus right fielders since 2021
2023 was a tough year for the Milwaukee Brewers in right field but it was primarily occupied by Tyrone Taylor who played 81 games, 60 of them in right field, last year. In 2022 the Brewers had Hunter Renfroe out in right and in 2021 Avisail Garcia occupied right field primarily, how would Chourio's pace totals stack up against those three?
As previously stated Tyrone Taylor played only 81 games in 2023, for the sake of comparison, we can look at his paces to see where his totals would be if he played a similar number of games to Renfroe (125 games in 2022) and Garcia (135 games in 2021).
Tyrone Taylor batted .234/.267/.446/713 for the Brewers in 2023, leading the Brewers to trade him with Adrian Houser to the New York Mets in the off-season. On a 130 game pace Tyrone Taylor would've finished around these numbers for 2023, hits - 88, doubles - 28, home runs - 16, strikeouts - 88, walks - 13, stolen bases - 14, runs scored - 58 and runs batted in - 56. These numbers all pale in comparison to Jackson Chourio's pace, outside of doubles, stolen bases and strikeouts, everything else Chourio would blow out of the water besides home runs which he would modestly exceed.
To be fair to Tyrone Taylor, it's worth noting he dealt with an inconsistent role and a couple injuries in his time with the Brewers. However, Hunter Renfroe and Avi Garcia were both established veterans when they played for the Brewers. Where would Chourio's pace stack up against these two?
Hunter Renfroe in his one season for the Milwaukee Brewers slashed .255/.315/.492/.807.
Hunter Renfroe in 2022 had 121 hits, 23 doubles, 29 home runs, struck out 121 times, drew 39 walks, stole one base (not his game), scored 62 runs and drove in 72 runs. Assuming Chourio gets a similar number of at bats per game for the rest of the season, Jackson Chourio would significantly outperform these numbers as well, except for home runs and walks.
Avi Garcia in 2021 actually had pretty similar stats to Renfroe. Garcia slashed .262/.330/.490/.820. Garcia had 121 hits, 18 doubles, 29 home runs, struck out 121 times, drew 38 walks, stole eight bases, scored 68 runs and drove in 86 runs. We may not as Brewers fans have given Garcia enough credit for how solid of a season this was.
Even Garcia's numbers don't hold a candle to what Jackson Chourio could do if he stays on the pace he's been on since June 1st outside of home runs, runs batted in and walks. Comparing Chourio to these three offensively is pretty eye opening to what Jackson Chourio could do for the stability of the right field position for the Brewers who have started four different right fielders in the last four seasons, and that's only one side of the coin.
What about defensively?
If Jackson Chourio's offensive pace hasn't already demonstrated the phenomenal potential that he possesses, defense can add to the story.
Chourio has played just 56 games in right field through July 6th in the 2024 season and has already accounted for nine defensive runs saved (DRS), six outs above average (OAA) and according to Baseball Savant has +1.2 above average feet of coverage in the outfield.
Tyrone Taylor played 60 games in right field last year and accounted for four defensive runs saved, two outs above average and +0.3 above average feet of coverage.
Hunter Renfroe in 125 games in right field in 2022 saved just two runs defensively, recorded -2 outs above average and had a -0.3 below average feet of coverage in the outfield. Renfroe had an exciting arm in the outfield but if he had more range it may not have been necessary to throw runners out as often and could have helped the Brewers be even better defensively.
Avisail Garcia in 135 games in right field in 2021 actually gave up -5 defensive runs saved, recorded -3 outs above average and -1.3 below average feet of coverage in the outfield. Garcia may have had a pretty solid offensive season in 2021 but these defensive numbers are pretty rough.
In conclusion, Jackson Chourio can finish better offensively, is already a massive upgrade defensively and is only scratching the surface of his potential compared to what the Milwaukee Brewers have gotten from their right fielders in the last three years.
The way that Jackson Chourio could finish off this season based on the pace of his last 28 games is only even more impressive when considering the slow start he got off to in April and May. However, it has been well documented that once Chourio figures it out at any level, he takes off and doesn't look back.
When 2024 is all said and done, Jackson Chourio should have painted a pretty clear picture that he truly is the Milwaukee Brewers right fielder of the immediate, near and distant future and will have shown that he is unquestionably worth the contract extension he was given before the season and in the coming years could prove that it was a massive steal of a deal for Matt Arnold and the Milwaukee Brewers.
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