Jackson Chourio's Rookie of the Year case gains steam but faces a major hurdle

Jackson Chourio has just continued to get better and better as the 2024 season has gone on. The Milwaukee Brewers signed the 20 year old outfielder to an eight year, $82MM contract extension before he even made his MLB debut.

The first two months of the season were a struggle for Chourio, as he limped to a .210/.254/.327 slash line with a .581 OPS at the end of May. The conversation among many was not Rookie of the Year for Chourio, but rather should be get demoted to Triple-A.

The Brewers opted to stick with their young outfielder on the major league club and since the calendar flipped to June, he's rewarded the team for their patience with him. Since June 1st, Chourio is hitting .318/.363/.524 with 10 homers, 11 stolen bases, and an .886 OPS.

He's raised his season average to .273 with 15 homers, 18 stolen bases, and has accrued 3.0 bWAR. Chourio's on pace for a 20 homer-20 steal season in his rookie year. In most seasons, that would be plenty to make you a front runner for NL Rookie of the Year.

Jackson Chourio rising in NL Rookie of the Year race

There are two major hurdles now that Jackson Chourio is going to have to clear in order to be the Brewers first Rookie of the Year since Devin Williams in 2020. Those two hurdles are named Paul Skenes and Jackson Merrill.

Paul Skenes didn't debut until mid-May, but he has several things working in his favor in the ROTY race. First, he's been really good. Second, he was named the starting pitcher for the NL in the All Star Game this year. For an award voted on by the media, it's going to be incredibly difficult for any ROTY voter to be convinced not to put Skenes atop their ballot because of that All Star honor. Third, he was last year's number one overall pick and prospect pedigree can play another factor.

There's also Jackson Merrill, who didn't slump quite as long as Chourio did to start the season, so his overall season numbers are better than Chourio's. Merrill has a higher slash line, home run total, OPS+, and bWAR. Considering how crucial Merrill has been to San Diego's playoff hopes this year, he's also placed himself as a frontrunner for this award.

How can Chourio win the NL Rookie of the Year?

Chourio doesn't seem to control his own destiny in the NL Rookie of the Year race. Not only does he need to continue to hit at the pace that he's been hitting at since the month of June, he's also going to need some regression from Skenes and Merrill so that voters may sour on them atop their ballots while Chourio continues to play well down the stretch.

There's been talk that the Pirates may limit Skenes' innings, which absolutely could hinder his chances of snagging the award from the duo of Jacksons.

Skenes has already accrued 4.4 bWAR and has a 2.16 ERA. He's going to need to have some blow up starts down the stretch to lose favor among the voters.

With Christian Yelich out, a larger focus of the Brewers offense is going to be on Chourio and the production he's bringing, now in the heart of the order. That can boost him, but Chourio can have the greatest finish to a rookie season in recent memory and if Skenes doesn't struggle, it's not going to change the outcome.