Looking at a glaring Milwaukee Brewers weakness: low-scoring games

Not that things aren’t looking up for the Milwaukee Brewers. With their 3-2 victory Wednesday over the Cubs in Chicago, they extended their lead over the St. Louis Cardinals to six full games.

That’s their most comfortable advantage since early July and just a game and a half off their most comfortable of the season as they head into the 2024 MLB trade deadline.

There is, however, a relative weakness the Crew must confront if they want to persevere down the stretch, and particularly if they want to succeed in October. Pat Murphy’s team is ordinary at best in the increasing number of very low-scoring games.

Despite their 59-43 record, the Brewers are only 6-7 in games in which both teams score three or fewer runs. They’re only 11-10 in games in which the combined run total is four or fewer. And in 2024, perhaps moreso than any other season, coping with a very low-scoring environment matters.

The average major league game is only seeing 8.74 runs scored this season, a decrease of a full run in just five years (from 9.76 in 2019). That means more games are being played close to the vest.

About 13 percent of Milwaukee’s schedule to date has involved close-to-the-vest low-scoring games, those in which three or fewer runs cross home plate. The Crew’s two closest divisional challengers – the Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates – are both proving superior to Milwaukee in those games. The Cardinals are 8-4 in games in which three or fewer runs are scored and 11-5 in games in which four or fewer runs touch home.

That’s a Cardinal advantage over the Brewers of two and one-half games each way.

The Pirates are 8-5 and 9-8 in such games.

The ability of the Brewers – or any other team – to thrive in a low-scoring environment becomes especially critical in October’s post-season, when pitcher usage narrows to the elite. Last season, postseason games averaged just 8.3 runs crossing the plate, nearly a full run below the regular season average of 9.2. During 2022, the same pattern held: 8.56 runs per game during the regular season, but just 7.3 during the post-season.

Oh, and in the last two postseasons nearly one of every five games saw four or fewer runs scored.

Those Brewers who were around in 2021 understand firsthand the critical nature of surviving in tightly played, low-scoring games. That club won its postseason opener 2-1 over the Atlanta Braves, then lost three straight, the first two of those defeats both coming by scores of 3-0.

In a low-scoring atmosphere, efficiency is vital, and the Brewers’ offense is only so-so in efficiency. The 2024 Crew is requiring 1.80 hits on average to produce one run. That’s below the 1.88 MLB average, though not by much.

And among the dozen teams presently in a postseason position, Milwaukee’s offense ranks just ninth in efficiency, ahead of only the Braves, Astros and Cardinals.

The lesson is clear. If the Brewers want to continue to succeed at the top of the NL Central – and especially if they want to flourish in October – they need to do better in the taut world of very low-scoring games. That’s the world in which championships can be decided.