The Milwaukee Brewers had lost six in a row heading into this weekend, but after taking the first two of this series with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Milwaukee is right back into first place in the NL Central. The 36-34 Brewers now hold a half game lead on the Reds who are in second place. The Pirates have lost five straight and are 34-35.
Today Milwaukee will hand the ball and the broom to Freddy Peralta to go for the sweep. Peralta is 5-6 with a 4.73 ERA in 13 starts and will be opposed by Luis Ortiz. Ortiz is 1-3 in seven starts for the Pirates with a 4.64 ERA.
Let’s get into the odds for the series finale in Milwaukee today.
Pirates vs. Brewers odds, run line and total
Pirates vs. Brewers prediction and pick
Things are likely to go from bad to worse for the Pirates who slipped under .500 yesterday. Luis Ortiz will have a tough time with this Milwaukee offense that has looked a lot more comfortable at home this weekend. Ortiz has a 5.96 FIP which is well over a run higher than his ERA. So far this season he has gotten away with only 20 strikeouts to 17 walks in 33.0 innings as well as giving up 41 hits.
When you factor in the six home runs including five in his last four starts, his ERA could easily be over six. He’s getting by in an unsustainable manner and that doesn’t last long in the MLB. The Pirates themselves were doing the same thing this season, but it’s finally caught up to them. In June Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has an ERA of 5.65 which is 29th in baseball.
On the other hand Milwaukee’s staff is ninth with a 3.80 ERA this month. They’ve done that with Peralta struggling in two of his three starts this month. In June the Pirates are 14th in OPS, but 21st in runs scored while the Brewers are 22nd in OPS and 16th in runs scored. Typically OPS is the better indicator of offensive success, but Pittsburgh almost completely lacks timely hitting and has a void at the bottom of their lineup with their catching situation.
Rowdy Tellez driving in two runs yesterday is a great sign for the Brewers. If his bat can come back to life with the way Christian Yelich is swinging it then Milwaukee will make the most of this month after a slow start.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change