Predicting where each Milwaukee Brewers free agent will sign in 2024

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The Milwaukee Brewers were, by a considerable margin, the best team in either Central division in 2023. Now, after an early fall in the postseason, they have a number of considerations about how to approach their offseason.

They have a number of players who will be faced with various kinds of choices to make: 10 free agents, three with club options, and one with a mutual option. There's a lot of potential for a very different lineup and starting rotation next year, and a lot of questions around where the many free/semi-free Brewers will go in the offseason.

Predicting where Brewers free agents will sign before the regular season

The Brewers have already decided to retain pitcher Colin Rea on a one year contract with an amount yet to be disclosed. They also have bigger fish to fry, particularly finding a manager to take over for Craig Counsell, who has already interviewed with with the New York Mets and Cleveland Guardians as a potential replacement for Buck Showalter or Terry Francona.

Notable players excluded from this list are Carlos Santana, who will most likely retire, and Victor Caratini, who the Brewers will/should try to keep. Here are four players headed into free agency, where they might go, and how much they might make there.

Jesse Winker: St. Louis Cardinals (1 year, $3 million)

With the past two years he's had, it seems like one-year, decreasing-in-value contracts are what's in store for Jesse Winker. After a sour depature from the Seattle Mariners, he went to the Brewers with Abraham Toro in a trade for Kolten Wong, a transaction that hasn't really worked out for either party involved, and didn't fare any better in Milwaukee. He only played in 61 games and finished with a pretty shocking final slash line of .199/.320/.247. After a performance like that, it's difficult to say if anyone might want him on their roster at all.

However, for your consideration: the St. Louis Cardinals. After coming off their worst year since 2007, the Cardinals are in disarray. Their .438 season will forever mark the end of Adam Wainwright's career, one of the last years of Paul Goldschmidt's, and the end of Nolan Arenado's 10 season streak of Gold Glove awards. The Cardinals need to do something.

With second baseman Brendan Donovan on the 60-day IL, DH option Nolan Gorman can spend more time there instead of at DH. Same goes for Lars Nootbaar in the outfield, given Dylan Carlson's injury. Then, if they reinstate Willson Contreras as their everyday catcher, that leaves ample opportunities for someone like Winker to slide in as DH. It's unlikely that a relatively low-spending team like the Cardinals will give him as much as he's been making recently ($14 million over the last two years), but Winker is in a very weak position to argue.

Eric Lauer: Chicago White Sox (2 years, $6 million)

Speaking of rough seasons, Eric Lauer's was a doozy too. After agreeing to a $5.075 million one year contract with the Brewers, Lauer gave up 34 earned runs in 46 2/3 innings, which made his ERA shoot up to 6.56, his worst since an injury-ridden 2019. Just a few days ago, on Oct. 20, the Brewers optioned him Triple-A, but Lauer refused and elected free agency instead. It's not exactly an attractive move from a front office perspective, but in a certain way it's admirable that Lauer decided to bet on himself.

The Chicago White Sox could use a lefty starter, and at this point, almost any addition to the White Sox is worth a go. Their starter, Dylan Cease, closed out the year with a 4.58 ERA, and Michael Kopech, their No. 3, gave up 29 home runs, which helped put the White Sox at fourth place in most home runs given up by a pitching staff.

Lauer would certainly be facing a pay cut if he accepted a deal with the thrifty White Sox, a team who has 60% of their payroll dedicated to five players, but he won't have much leverage in these negotiations either. If all he wanted was to stay in the major leagues, he should take whatever deal he can get.

Julio Teheran: Washington Nationals (1 year, $1 million)

Julio Teheran is actually in a similar boat to Eric Lauer; he was outrighted to Triple-A on Oct. 2 and elected free agency instead. However, he had a better season than Lauer, and a better season than most of the Washington Nationals starting rotation, for that matter. His sample size is smaller, sure, with 71 2/3 innings pitched, but he had a better K/9 and HR/9 than Nationals ace Patrick Corbin, a higher ERA, and only a slightly worse fWAR.

After a $1.5 million year with the Brewers, he almost certainly will be accepting less to play for something of a trial period. Even so, Teheran has a history of very good work, specifically for the Atlanta Braves, where he spent nine seasons, had Rookie of the Year votes in 2013, and is a two-time All-Star. Clearly he feels like he has more major league years in him, and he maybe he could find them in a low-stakes market like Washington DC.

Josh Donaldson: Toronto Blue Jays (1 day, $0)

It would be difficult, if not altogether impossible, to envy Dan Lozano, the agent who will be tasked with finding a new home for Josh Donaldson next year. Donaldson has played for seven teams over 14 seasons, and is not particularly well loved in most of the cities those teams represent. Known more than anything for his arrogance on the field and off, there is very little love for him among players or fans. Accordingly, it feels unlikely that Donaldson — at 37, who already accepted the league minimum pay with the Brewers this year and has taken three trips to the 60-day IL, one as recently as July of this year — will be able to find a team to sign a big league deal with at all.

That's where the Blue Jays come in. Donaldson was an All-Star with them in 2016, AL MVP in 2015, and a Silver Slugger in both years. His greatness peaked in Toronto. So here's the proposal: the Blue Jays sign him to a one-day ceremonial contract so that he can retire as a Blue Jay. No need for Josh Donaldson Day, a la King Felix, no need to add him to Toronto's Level of Excellence, a la Jose Bautista. Just a simple, ceremonial gesture and maybe a short press conference that will finally send Donaldson off quietly.

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