Reds vs. Brewers prediction and odds for Monday, July 24 (Take the OVER)

The Brewers completely shut down the Cincinnati offense earlier this month, but this time around they might need to lean on Christian Yelich and their bats a bit more.
Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich (22)
Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich (22) / Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

It seems that the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers have saved all of their matchups this season for July. This will be the third time they’ve met this month. Milwaukee is 5-1 against the Reds in July and leads the season series 8-2. That’s a little bit significant too because the Reds only trail the Brewers by a half game for the division lead. The Reds are 55-46 and the Brewers are 55-45.

Cincinnati can take the lead right back with a win tonight and they’ll send Graham Ashcraft to the mound in search of that victory. Milwaukee will counter with Colin Rea. Ashcraft has made 18 starts this season and has a 5.77 ERA with a record of 5-7 while Rea is 5-4 with a 4.64 ERA in 17 games.

Milwaukee has won four straight against the Reds and they’ll look to make it five as home favorites today. 

Reds vs. Brewers odds, run line and total

Reds vs. Brewers prediction and pick

This is a very interesting matchup because Milwaukee is built around pitching and defense and the Reds are all about their lineup mashing. With both of these team’s playing in hitter’s parks it’s a surprise that Milwaukee’s strategy has won out so far. Despite struggling with the Brewers, the Reds are riding a five-game win streak into this one. 

Ashcraft pitched well during that streak and has been very good for four-straight starts. Since his start on June 30, he has a 1.82 ERA. I don’t think anything about this stretch is sustainable for Ashcraft because he has a 4.54 FIP over those four starts with only 14 strikeouts to nine walks in 24.2 innings. Opposing hitters have a BABIP of .254 over that stretch. 

Colin Rea on the other side hasn’t been nearly as good as Ashcraft lately and that includes 4.2 innings against the Reds in which he allowed five runs on seven hits. The last series between these two teams only had 11 total runs scored across three games, but I think this one will be the complete opposite. 

Milwaukee relies on their pitching a lot, but Christian Yelich is making sure that they don’t always have to. Yelich has a 1.066 OPS this month with five home runs and 17 RBI. I have faith in neither starting pitcher, so I’m taking the over in Game 1. 

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