The Milwaukee Brewers have a 1.5 game lead on the Cubs in the NL Central after splitting with the Pirates in a four-game weekend set, but they nearly dropped three of four and are losing their grip on the top spot in the standings. 60-53 Milwaukee will need a series win in these three games against the 44-67 Colorado Rockies to regain their footing and tonight they have Freddy Peralta on the mound against Peter Lambert.
Lambert has made four starts for Colorado along with 14 relief appearances and is 2-2 with a 5.07 ERA. Peralta will be making his 22nd start and is 7-8 in his previous 21 with a 4.46 ERA. Milwaukee is favored at home with Peralta pitching.
Rockies vs. Brewers odds, run line and total
Rockies vs. Brewers prediction and pick
I don’t expect the Brewers to hold onto the divisional lead because they just don’t have enough offense to win consistently. They put up 14 runs against Pittsburgh on Thursday, but just seven over the next three against a rather mediocre pitching staff for Pittsburgh. Now, they’re facing a staff that is actually pitching better than Pittsburgh over the past 30 days with a 4.24 team ERA which ranks 13th.
Lambert will not go deep into this one so it’ll be on the Colorado bullpen to carry them through. For the year they are 27th in ERA at 4.84 so if the Brewers were going to have an offensive outburst today would be the day. They brought Carlos Santana in at the deadline to provide something at first base and he has a .582 OPS as a Brewer. Mark Canha has been even worse since joining the team with a .411 OPS, just three singles in 20 at-bats.
The Rockies aren’t anything to be afraid of at the plate, so Peralta should have a good outing. He had one blip against the Braves which is excusable, but other than that he’s been very strong lately. The Brewers are fifth in team ERA over the past 30 days which is a big part of why they’re still at the top of the division.
Pitching and defense is the key for Milwaukee which is why the under has been so profitable in their games. In their last 107 games the under has hit 59 times which, so you would be up 10.65 units betting the under in every game. Let’s follow that trend in this one.
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