What are the Milwaukee Brewers' Updated Playoff Odds Heading Into September?

Milwaukee is in good shape heading into September, but still have Chicago nipping at their heels.
Willy Adames and Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers
Willy Adames and Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers / Michael Reaves/GettyImages

We've finally made it. With an off day on Thursday, the Milwaukee Brewers are finally done with the August portion of their schedule and are prepared to enter the final month of play in September (plus one game in October). And boy what a month August was.

The Brewers won or tied all but two of their series in August (technically three if you count the Nationals series that crossed into July, though the split the games that actually took place this month). Milwaukee also swept four different series (White Sox, Rangers, Twins, and Padres) and at one point had a nine-game winning streak.

At the beginning of the month, the Brewers were attempting to fend off the Reds and Cubs as they attempted to usurp the Crew for the NL Central lead. Milwaukee does still hold a three-game lead in the division, but while the Reds have slipped in recent weeks and are now six games back of the Brewers, the Cubs just won't go away and are three games behind in second place.

The Brewers are coming off their first series loss since a sweep on the road against the Dodgers, but that's certainly no reason to panic. Even FanGraphs appears to believe so as they do not seem worried at all about the Crew's chances of reaching the playoffs.

What are the Milwaukee Brewers' updated playoff odds heading into September?

Let's start with the projected record first. As of August 31st, FanGraphs projects the Brewers to finish right around 89-73. That would be the team's best record in two years, would tie for the 10th best record in franchise history, and would match the record of the 2019 team that made the playoffs as a Wild Card.

FanGraphs doesn't quite have the Brewers as a lock to make the playoffs, but it's awfully close. They give Milwaukee a 97.1% chance at reaching the 2023 postseason, which includes a 77.7% chance at winning the division and a 19.4% chance at being the Wild Card instead.

FanGraphs is also looking quite favorably on the Cubs' current chances at reaching the playoffs as well, though more likely as a Wild Card. Chicago is being given a 77.6% chance overall at making the postseason, 21.6% of it being as the NL Central champs and 56.1% as a Wild Card.

The Reds aren't being seen as totally out of the picture, but they are fading fast. FanGraphs now gives them just a 15.8% chance at making the playoffs with just a 0.7% chance of rallying to take the NL Central division title.

It's also worth noting that although they are not officially eliminated from postseason contention just yet, the Pirates and Cardinals are unsurprisingly both being given a zero percent chance at making the playoffs.

Of course, numbers don't put teams in the playoffs, winning games do. But as long as the Brewers perform like they did in August, these predictions should hold up just fine.