Predicting what a Jacob Misiorowski extension would look like

A few days ago, while the Milwaukee Brewers were busy drafting, MLB insider Francys Romero tried sneaking a major headline past us all, with a post on X saying that the Brewers and their rookie sensation Jacob Misiorowski were in contract extension talks.

However, a day later, FanSided's own Robert Murray poured cold water on a potential Misiorowski extension, saying that the two sides were not actively engaged in extension talks. Even still, the rumor has us thinking about what a contract extension for one of the most exciting young pitchers in baseball could look like.

Contract extensions for young MLB starting pitchers are a rarity. Chris Archer currently holds the record for the least amount of service time before receiving a massive payday, as the Tampa Bay Rays gave him six years, $25.5 million in 2014 after just 156 days in the majors.

After Archer, the Brewers have a pair of pitchers that they extended early in their careers. Freddy Peralta received a five-year, $15.5 million extension in 2020, after just one year of service time. A few years later, the Brew Crew gave more guaranteed money to Aaron Ashby. He received $20.5 million over the same duration, and signed mid-season while he was in his first full season in the big leagues.

In Seattle, the Mariners gave Marco Gonzalez $30 million over four years after back-to-back successful seasons. Then, most recently, the Arizona Diamondbacks gave Brandon Pfaadt a five-year, $45.0 million deal after two seasons in which he accumulated 277.2 innings.

Predicting what the Milwaukee Brewers might pay Jacob Misiorowski should a contract extension occur

Based on the deals that have come before him, and how much elite pitchers have made in arbitration before hitting free agency, extending Misiorowski would have to consist of at least a six-year contract and probably somewhere in the $50-60 million range.  Tacking on one or two option years would also be in the Brewers’ best interest as that would allow them the ability to retain control of him in what would otherwise be his first go-around in free agency.

A six-year deal like this would give Misiorowski more guaranteed money than Corbin Burnes earned prior to hitting the open market, without having Cy Young and ERA title accolades behind him. If we split the difference and use $55 million guaranteed over six years, this equates to a $9.16 million average annual value.

Using the typical back-loaded structure of contract extensions, a breakdown could look as follows: $3.0 million signing bonus, $2.5 million in 2026, $4.0 million in 2027, $5.5 million in 2028, $9.0 million in 2029, $13 million in 2030, and $15.0 million in 2031. Milwaukee could then attach a $3.0 million buyout to a 2031 club option and potentially push for a second option year in 2032 as well.

A deal like this would give Misiorowski financial comfort throughout the early stages of his career, while also potentially allowing him to hit free agency as soon as his age 30 season, should the first club option be declined.

For Milwaukee, they would get the benefit of having his salary set, avoiding arbitration, and potentially having an additional two years of control.

Massive contract extensions in pitchers carry more risk than position players, which is typically why the latter get these types of deals. However, the Brewers tend to do unprecedented things, and locking up an arm with superstar talent for the long haul may be something they should explore.