Revisiting Brewers’ 2025 arbitration projections ahead of key filing deadline

The Milwaukee Brewers are no strangers to the ups and down that is MLB's arbitration process. Milwaukee has famously moved players who get expensive in arbitration (see: Corbin Burnes) and the results of arbitration have an outsized impact on a team like the Brewers that operate with a tight payroll.

The first part of that process was the non-tender deadline which has already occurred where the Brewers had to decide who to tender contracts to among their arbitration eligible players at all. However, the next part is when Milwaukee and those players have to get down to brass tax and talk actual dollars with the impending arbitration filing deadline.

Explaining the arbitration filing deadline and what it means for the Brewers

The MLB arbitration filing deadline is on Thursday, January 9th and it is the deadline where teams and arbitration-eligible players either have to agree to terms on a contract for the 2025 season or have to file the contract figures that each side want to pay and likely head to an arbitration hearing later in the offseason. A third party arbitrator will then choose between the two figures the sides file after the hearing, so the stakes can be pretty high to either get a deal done and eliminate the uncertainty or file at figures that each side thinks they can win with.

Projected Brewers arbitration salaries for 2025 ahead of the filing deadline

The Brewers entered the offseason with more arbitration-eligible players, but a number of developments have happened since then. Devin Williams being traded was the biggest move that took one arbitration name out of the equation, Eric Haase already agreed to a deal, and Hoby Milner, Jake Bauers, and Bryse Wilson hit free agency. That leaves Milwaukee with the following arbitration-eligible players to figure out (with projected arbitration salaries from MLB Trade Rumors).

• Aaron Civale - $8 million
• Nestor Cortes - $7.7 million
• William Contreras - $7.6 million
• Joey Payamps - $2.8 million
• Trevor Megill - $2 million
• Nick Mears - $900,000

The biggest names to watch ahead of the filing deadline, without question, are Civale, Cortes, and Contreras. The Brewers (hopefully) are aiming to stay on good terms with Contreras as one of their absolute best players, but it takes two to tango and how hardline a stance Contreras takes on his value could reveal a lot about what any future negotiations between the two sides could look like.

Cortes' likely cost in arbitration was probably a well thought-through idea before Milwaukee traded for him, so that provides some optimism that the two sides can come to terms without a hearing. That said, Cortes is a Wasserman client and anytime a big agency is involved, things can go sideways in a hurry.

Civale is an interesting case to keep an eye on because while he was good in his 14 starts with the Brewers in 2024 with a 3.53 ERA and he saw success in Cleveland, his performance has been kind of all over the place the last three seasons. Civale's final arbitration figure may be the most uncertain of any of the players Milwaukee deals with here.

After that, the payroll stakes go down considerably as the amounts due to Payamps, Megill, and Mears aren't likely to break the bank. Payamps is the most interesting name here as he has become a critical piece in the Brewers' bullpen and is entering his second to last year of team control. However, he settled with the team without incident last year before the deadline which bodes well for clean negotiations this go-around.

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