Rumors of the Brewers' next offseason blockbuster trade have already begun

In each of the last three offseasons, the Milwaukee Brewers have traded away an All-Star who was entering their final year of team control. Had the Brewers waited to deal Josh Hader in the offseason rather than at the 2022 trade deadline, it would be four consecutive offseasons in which Milwaukee sent away one of their star players in a winter blockbuster. And yet, the Brewers continue to win.

It's a necessary strategy given the broken financial landscape of Major League Baseball. Unable to compete on the free agent market with teams who have payrolls three times the size of theirs, the Brewers must make use of the trade market to replenish their roster with talent. Adding players via trade obviously requires teams to endure some difficult departures. However, the Brewers' success during the 2026 campaign would not have occurred without this quartet of blockbusters.

The Hader trade back in 2022 netted Milwaukee Robert Gasser, who has been a key part of the pitching staff this year, and outfield prospect Estuery Ruiz, who was eventually flipped for All-Star catcher William Contreras. The Corbin Burnes trade ahead of the 2024 season gave the Brewers DL Hall, who is enjoying a breakout season in the Brewers' bullpen, Joey Ortiz, who despite his inconsistent results over the last two years, has undoubtedly been an important piece of the roster this year, and, by way of a draft pick that was included in the deal, slugging first base prospect Blake Burke, who is knocking on the door of the big leagues. The Devin Williams trade the following offseason netted the Brewers Caleb Durbin, who was the headliner in a trade that brought Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan, two integral parts of the Brewers' 2026 pitching staff, to Milwaukee. And though it has yet to produce the results Brewers fans are hoping for, the Freddy Peralta trade this past winter brought Brandon Sproat, who made 19 starts for the Brew Crew this year, and prospect Jett Williams, who will likely debut next season, to The Good Land.

Though it is certainly difficult to watch four All-Stars leave Milwaukee in four years, the strategy works. The Brewers have won three NL Central titles in the last three seasons, and currently hold a 7.0-game lead in the division with one month to play in the 2026 campaign. Given the success, it's therefore unsurprising that league insiders have already started wondering how the Brewers will approach the upcoming offseason.

During his appearance on the Just Baseball podcast yesterday, MLB insider Robert Murray of FanSided cited Brewers' All-Star catcher William Contreras as one of the likeliest All-Stars to be traded during the upcoming offseason.

MLB's expected offseason lockout will impact Brewers' potential trade of All-Star catcher William Contreras this winter

"Contreras is going to have a bunch of interest in the winter," said Murray before noting that "rival executives are definitely thinking about" the Brewers' All-Star catcher already. An All-Star catcher like Contreras, who will be 29 years old next year and making less than $15 million in his final year of arbitration, is not easy to come by on either the free agent or trade market. Many teams often find themselves searching for an upgrade at catcher, and Contreras is better than most.

However, there is likely to be a wrinkle this offseason that will greatly impact the Brewers' ability to trade their All-Star catcher, should they elect to do so. Almost certainly, due to the league and the player's associations' expected inability to agree on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, MLB will enter a lockout on December 1 of this year, meaning free agents won't be able to sign and front offices won't be able to do business with one another. No one knows how long the lockout will last, but with the controversial topic of a salary cap on the agenda, it's certainly possible that the two parties won't reach an agreement for much of the offseason.

In general, the Brewers have waited until the later parts of the offseason to execute their winter blockbusters. They traded Burnes on February 1, 2024, and traded Peralta on January 21 of this year. The Brewers like to first see how the free agent market plays out before deciding whether or not to deal their stars -- a strategy that also can lead to desperate offers from their eventual trade partners. However, with a lockout presumably starting on December 1, the question becomes: do the Brewers rush and trade Contreras in the month after the end of the 2026 season, or do they wait to see what happens with the lockout before deciding whether or not to deal their All-Star catcher? The latter feels more likely for the Brewers' calculated front office, but if they see an advantage to moving Contreras under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, a quick offseason blockbuster is certainly possible.

Therefore, the Brewers' decision of whether or not to move Contreras this offseason is not as cut and dry as it seemingly was with Peralta or Burnes; there are other factors at play. However, given the early report from Murray and the success the Brewers have had dealing players who are entering their final year of team control, fans should be prepared to see Contreras depart in an offseason blockbuster this winter.

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