Team insider reveals how Brewers could make their trade with Royals a lopsided one

On the surface, the Milwaukee Brewers’ trade with the Kansas City Royals feels like the classic “both teams fixed something” swap: the Royals get outfielder Isaac Collins and right-hander Nick Mears, while the Brewers bring in lefty Ángel Zerpa.

Collins wasn’t filler. He just gave Milwaukee a very real season at the plate — .263/.368/.411 with 9 homers and 16 steals. Mears appeared in 63 games, with a 3.49 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. That is exactly the sort of “seventh-inning fireman” contenders end up missing the moment they assume they have enough bullpen arms. 

So why would the Brewers do it?

Brewers may have found the cheat code in their Royals trade

Because this may not be just a bullpen add. This is Milwaukee looking at Zerpa and thinking, “What if we can make this guy more than that?”

Matt Arnold didn’t exactly hide the Brewers’ thinking on Zerpa. Adam McCalvy, the Brewers' long-time beat reporter for MLB.com, reported that Milwaukee will at least consider the possibility of using Zerpa as a starter, and Arnold’s own words tell the story. McCalvy notes that the Brewers want "more extensive conversations with Zerpa before making a final decision", but the “door is cracked open to starting". Arnold reportedly added that scouts believe Zerpa, who was a starter throughout the minor leagues, can handle it, and that the team values his postseason experience as well.

If Milwaukee keeps him in the bullpen, the trade stays pretty balanced: you traded two useful big leaguers for a lefty with options and nasty stuff. Fine.

If Milwaukee stretches him out, though? That’s where this can get unfair in a hurry.

Zerpa’s carrying tool is that he turns contact into worm-burners. He induced ground balls 63.7 percent of the time last season. And it’s not a one-pitch gimmick. On Baseball Savant, Zerpa’s mix is built on a sinker/slider foundation, with the sinker sitting around 45 percent usage. If Milwaukee really does envision Zerpa getting through a lineup multiple times, it will be imperative that the team adds a more effective changeup to his repertoire, to neutralize his ineffectiveness against right-handed hitters. But, if such an addition occurs, and Zerpa can add a better secondary fastball shape as well, there's reason to believe his future could be as a starting pitcher.

A Framber Valdez comp works as a concept: a younger, cheaper lefty who can weaponize a sinker and make innings feel shorter than they are. And if the Brewers can coax even a mid-rotation version of that out of Zerpa, this stops being “depth for depth” and starts being “Milwaukee traded two solid pieces for a potential multi-season advantage.”

That’s the bet. And honestly? This front office doesn’t make that kind of bet by accident.