The case against the Brewers trading Trevor Megill during the 2025-26 offseason

Some of the hottest Milwaukee Brewers discourse right now is the classic small-market reflex: sell high on the closer before his price tag climbs, cash in the value, and trust the bullpen factory to crank out the next guy.

And sure, teams are calling. When you’ve got a first-time All-Star closer with two years of control, you’re going to get the New York Mets/Yankees types sniffing around.

But here’s the part that keeps getting skipped: trading Trevor Megill isn’t just “selling high", it’s also choosing volatility on purpose. And for a Brewers team that just proved it can win at a high level, that’s a weird self-inflicted wound.

Trading Trevor Megill now would be the Brewers’ most avoidable mistake

Megill isn’t an overpriced ninth-inning luxury. He’s projected for about $4.2 million in arbitration, according to MLB Trade Rumors, which is basically couch-cushion money compared to what comparable late-inning arms cost on the open market. If your argument is “move him for payroll relief,” you’re not making a baseball argument, you’re making a budgeting one, and one that won't even resonate with the small-market Brewers. The Brewers can be disciplined and keep a closer at that number.

And it’s not smoke and mirrors performance, either. The underlying models love him. FanGraphs’ pitch modeling has Megill at the top Pitching+ mark (and sitting near the very top of the Stuff+ / Pitching+ tier) of any pitcher in baseball.

This is where the “sell high” crowd tends to hand-wave the most important detail: the shape of Megill’s dominance. The fastball is a weapon, and the knuckle-curve pairing gives him a real two-pitch power finish. Even when the velo discussion pops up, the pitch-quality inputs have consistently liked what he’s doing. 

There was also an injury that you can’t pretend did not happen. He was placed on the IL by the Brewers at the end of August due to a right flexor strain. However, the complete story surrounding the injury is important; he came back for the remainder of the regular season. While this may not eliminate all risks associated with the player, it shifts the focus from "time-bomb waiting to explode" to "you need to monitor and you need to manage." If Milwaukee's internal medical team is okay with the risk, they’d be foolish to trade him now just because a late-season month-long injury sparked a panic that could ultimately land them in a ninth-inning disaster.

And here’s the bigger reality: the 2026 window isn’t theoretical. This isn’t a club coming off a 74-win faceplant looking for a reset. This is a franchise that can credibly talk itself into another run — and in that world, the bullpen can’t be treated like an afterthought. 

Yes, Abner Uribe is very exciting — and he had a great season in 2025 — but a good set-up man and a full season as a closer with the emotional/physical burden of being the ninth inning are two different jobs. If you are going to trade Megill, then it is not just trading arms for prospects; you would be changing the way the entire bullpen operates and hope it doesn't break down.

The smarter play, if you’re Milwaukee, is to leverage the fact that you don’t have to trade him in December. If the Brewers are rolling again, Megill is the exact kind of October stabilizer you keep. If the season goes sideways, the deadline market will still be there, and closers with performance, pitch models, and control get paid in real prospect currency.

So sure: listen on Megill. You’d be irresponsible not to. But the case against trading him is simple: a cheap, model-backed, All-Star closer is a competitive advantage, especially for a team that can’t just go buy another one.