The hidden cost of the Brewers signing a top-tier free agent in the 2025-26 offseason

Lost amidst all the talk of payroll slashing and Freddy Peralta trade rumors is the fact that the Milwaukee Brewers can, you know, add good players this offseason. With plenty of money coming off the books after the presumed departures of Rhys Hoskins, Brandon Woodruff, and José Quintana, the Brewers have a little more financial flexibility this offseason than they have had in years past.

Sure, it may be unlikely that the team trades Peralta and then turns around to sign a high-priced free agent, but crazier things have happened, like when the team signed Hoskins and, shortly after, traded Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles. And don't forget that a trade of their ace doesn't mean the Brewers are punting the 2026 season; this team did just win 97 games after trading away Devin Williams, after all.

However, if the Brewers do decide to make that leap into the deep end of the free-agent waters, they'll incur a hidden penalty.

Breaking down what Brewers stand to gain and lose from "qualifying offer free agents"

As a revenue sharing recipient, Milwaukee stands to face the least-harsh penalty of all teams if they end up signing a free agent who receives (and subsequently denies) a qualifying offer. The team would have to surrender its third-highest draft selection in the 2026 MLB Draft, which will likely come in one of the Competitive Balance Rounds (prior to the actual third round of the draft).

For reference, the Chicago Cubs (who didn't receive revenue sharing funds and didn't exceed the luxury tax) would have to surrender their second-highest pick in the draft and $500k in international bonus pool allocations. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Dodgers (who don't receive revenue sharing and did exceed the Competitive Balance Tax) would lose $1 million in bonus pool money and their second and fifth-highest draft selections.

Sometimes, being in a small market does have its advantages.

All that being said, it's incredibly unlikely this ends up applying to the Brewers this offseason. The last time they signed a free agent attached to a qualifying offer was Lorenzo Cain in 2018, on the same day they traded for Christian Yelich. That streak is likely to extend through this winter.

In more relevant news, the Brewers stand to gain quite a bit if they slap a player with the qualifying offer and they leave via free agency.

To put it simply, if the Brewers lose a player who is given a qualifying offer, they will receive a compensatory pick directly after the first round of the 2026 draft if that player signs a deal worth more than $50 million in total. If the deal is worth less than $50 million guaranteed, the compensatory pick would fall just before the third round.

Again, for reference, the Cubs would receive a pick just before the third round, regardless of the total price of the contract. The Dodgers, meanwhile, would receive a pick after the fourth round.

The Crew have one reasonable candidate to extend the QO to this offseason: Brandon Woodruff. The longtime Brewer has a $20 million mutual option for 2026; if he declines his end of it, the Brewers could up the ante by handing him the qualifying offer, which is set at $22.05 million for the 2026 season.

Notably, Woodruff could be the rare free agent that accepts the QO, as his season was derailed late by injuries, and he could benefit from re-establishing himself as a frontline starter before he hits the open market.