The impact of the Brewers' qualifying offer decision with Willy Adames

The Milwaukee Brewers are about to do something they've never done before: Give one of their free agents the qualifying offer. The qualifying offer, or QO, was introduced back in 2012, as a replacement of the old system that compensated teams that lost free agents.

In that entire time, the Brewers have never given out a QO to one of their free agents. The system arrived too late for Prince Fielder and the Brewers have not taken a player of such significance to free agency since then, opting to either extend them or trade them away before they hit the market. Willy Adames, however, will be a different story.

The Brewers chose to keep Willy Adames through his final year of arbitration, setting up an easy QO decision for the front office.

What is the MLB Qualifying Offer for 2025?

The qualifying offer for the 2025 season has been set at $21.05MM. The salary is determined by the average salary of MLB's 125 highest paid players. It's a straight one year deal at that salary, no options, no incentives, no deferrals.

A player can only receive the QO once in their career. After the Brewers give the offer to Adames, he cannot receive another one. For example, if on the off chance that Adames accepts the QO, they would not be able to give him the QO again next offseason.

When does the qualifying offer decision have to be made?

The Brewers have to decide if they want to extend a QO to Adames by the fifth day following the end of the World Series. Since the Dodgers just won in five games on Wednesday night, that means that the decision by the Brewers is due by Monday, November 4th. It should be a fairly easy decision for the front office to extend Adames a QO.

Adames will then have 15 days to decide to accept or reject the QO making his decision due by November 19th. This allows Adames to explore what his market will look like and see if he'll get stronger offers than the one year, $21.05MM deal the QO brings. In all likelihood, he will find a strong market and will reject the QO from the Brewers in search of a long-term deal.

What do the Brewers get in compensation because of the qualifying offer?

As a revenue-sharing recipient, if Adames rejects a QO and then signs elsewhere for more than $50MM (a highly likely outcome), then the Brewers would receive a 2025 Draft pick between the 1st round and Competitive Balance Round A. That pick will likely fall somewhere in the early 30s overall.

If, for some reason, Adames signs a short-term deal elsewhere that nets him less than $50MM, then the Brewers draft pick compensation would come after Competitive Balance Round B, which would be somewhere in the mid-70s overall, a difference of around 40 picks and approximately $1.6MM in bonus pool money.

Should the likely outcomes hold of Adames receiving and rejecting a QO, then signing elsewhere for more than $50MM, the Brewers would be loaded with early picks for the 2025 Draft. Their first round pick, Adames compensation pick, and Competitive Balance Round A pick would give them three of the top 35 or so selections in what's considered to be a very strong Draft class.

If Adames ends up returning to Milwaukee on a new contract, the Brewers would not receive any Draft pick compensation and they still would not be able to give him another QO the next time he reaches free agency.

The Brewers held on to Adames for the 2024 season rather than trading him for a more immediate return like they did with Corbin Burnes. They knew they were going to give out a QO for the first time in franchise history to Adames. They've signed players who were given QOs before with Kyle Lohse and Lorenzo Cain, but have not given one out to one of their free agents. It won't keep Adames in town, but it'll give the team some compensation when he eventually departs.