This Brewers prospect's revamped pitch arsenal could lead to a career resurgence

While upper-level pitching prospects like Chad Patrick, Logan Henderson, and Jacob Misiorowski have rightfully received most of the attention from Milwaukee Brewers fans this season, one prospect who fans should be familiar with is quietly having the best season of his career and outpacing the other three in several statistics.

The Brewers probably didn't plan on having 22-year-old Carlos Rodríguez make three starts for them in 2024, but for a team that used 17 starting pitchers a season ago, all options were expended. Rodríguez's time in MLB didn't go as he hoped it would — he lost all three starts and posted a 7.30 ERA in the 12.1 innings that he covered. As a result, some Brewers fans were quick to write him off of their future rotation plans, turning their attention to Patrick, Misiorowski, and Henderson instead. However, Rodríguez looks like a new pitcher through the first month of the 2025 season, with significant changes to his pitch mix serving as the impetus for the improvement.

Carlos Rodríguez altered his pitch mix and is seeing impressive results

Similar to most starting pitchers in the Brewers organization, Rodríguez sports all three fastball shapes: the four-seam, the sinker, and the cutter. During his three starts for the Brewers last season, Rodríguez threw the sinker 21.5% of the time while opting for each of the four-seam and cut fastball roughly 18% of the time. However, according to several advanced statistics, Rodríguez's sinker is the worst of his three fastballs, carrying a Stuff+ rating of 91 (9% below the league average) and resulting in 2.1 weighted runs below a replacement-level sinker. This season, Rodríguez has all but abandoned the sinker, throwing it just 3.5% of the time, while tossing his four-seam fastball, which is still sitting at 92-93 MPH, 34.2% of the time, according to FanGraphs.

Additionally, Rodríguez has made alterations to his secondary pitch mix, which includes a slider, a curveball, and a changeup. As detailed on FanGraphs, with the Brewers last season, he threw 15.5% sliders, 10.7% curveballs, and 15.9% changeups, but in five starts with the Nashville Sounds this season, his changeup usage is up to 26.6%. Overall, he's opting for off-speed pitches roughly 5% more of the time than he did during his time in the majors last year.

The results of these changes? A much higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate than Rodríguez has ever posted in a full season. He's struck out a ridiculous 32.7% of the batters he's faced, while issuing free passes to just 7.9% of them. That combination has resulted in a 1.09 ERA through 24.2 innings pitched this season.

If Rodríguez continues to post these impressive numbers with his new-look arsenal, the Brewers will be forced to give him another shot at the big leagues this season, whether a clear spot is open or not. With Rodríguez on the 40-man roster and Misiorowski not, it may be the former who is the next prospect called upon to cover innings for the big-league ball club.