Two former Brewers shortstops offer clear floor and ceiling for newcomer Cooper Pratt

Cooper Pratt has been the talk of Milwaukee over the last couple of days. The Milwaukee Brewers' new shortstop made his MLB debut on Tuesday night, and while his first game in the majors was underwhelming, Pratt bounced back with strong performances in each of his next two contests. The 21-year-old infielder collected his first major league hit, run scored, RBI, and stolen base in Wednesday night's victory. Now that the pomp and circumstance are out of the way, Pratt can focus on the day-to-day of being a big leaguer.

The Brewers are no stranger to relying on young prospects at the big-league level. Recently, it's been a group consisting of Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, Jacob Misiorowski, Garrett Mitchell, and Sal Frelick, all of whom began their professional careers in the Milwaukee's farm system, that has been key to the Brewers' success. However, to some fans, it feels like just yesterday that a group of Brewers' prospects including Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy, Prince Fielder, and Corey Hart was rising through the minor league system together, before breaking the Brewers' 26-year postseason drought together in 2008.

The small-market Brewers have always been forced to rely on young players rather than a roster full of expensive free agents, and that trend is continuing with their new shortstop Pratt, who becomes the latest addition to a growing list of homegrown shortstop prospects who have risen through the ranks and eventually made their debuts with the Brew Crew. Two other names on that list of former homegrown Brewers shortstops offer clear guidelines for what Pratt's floor and ceiling could be in his now-started major league career.

How two former top Brewers shortstop prospects could set expectations for Cooper Pratt

In the 21st century, three homegrown Brewers shortstop prospects ranked among the top prospects in MLB prior to making their respective major league debuts. Hardy, who was drafted by Milwaukee back in 2001, was a Top 30 MLB prospect in 2005 before making his debut with the Brewers at 22 years old. Orlando Arcia, who Milwaukee signed as an international free agent when he was just 16 years old back in 2010, was MLB's No. 6-ranked prospect in 2016 before he debuted for the Brew Crew at 21 years old -- the same age Pratt is now. Add to that list Pratt, who currently checks in at No. 63 on MLB Pipeline's list of the top prospects in baseball.

Interestingly enough, Hardy and Arcia's careers offer a good ceiling and floor, respectively, for what Brewers fans can expect from Pratt. Like Pratt, Arcia was best known for his glove as he rose through the Brewers' minor league system, and the hope was that his bat would eventually come around at the big-league level. After a pedestrian rookie season in 2016, Arcia posted a strong 2.2 bWAR campaign in 2017, which was heavily aided by his defensive value. That said, the then 22-year-old Arcia did crush 15 homers and posted a decent OPS+ of 90 to go along with his strong glove in '17.

However, things quickly went downhill for Arcia, who didn't post an OPS+ higher than 64 (suggesting he was at least 36% worse than the league-average hitter) in a full season until 2022. Though his defensive value remained strong in 2018, it quickly declined as things got more and more frustrating for Arcia at the plate. In early 2021, the Brewers traded Arcia to the Atlanta Braves and eventually replaced him with trade acquisition Willy Adames.

Surprisingly, Arcia did go on to start the 2023 All-Star Game at shortstop for the National League, but the recent years of his career have been highlighted by inconsistency and an inability to remain on one team's roster for an extended period of time. To some extent, Arcia's career represents the "floor" or worst-case scenario for Pratt. Arcia's bat never developed, the value of his glove started to slip, and though he had the occasional valuable season, he largely lived in the negatives when it comes to Wins Above Replacement. While Pratt could, in the worst-case scenario, follow a similar offensive trajectory, his floor, assuming his glove doesn't regress in the same way Arcia's did, is probably a tad higher than Arcia's career, but the former Brewers shortstop offers a sobering reminder that glove-first top prospects don't always pan out.

On the flip side, J.J. Hardy's career could be considered the "ceiling" or best-case scenario for Pratt. As a prospect, Hardy was also known for his glove, but also had a bit more offensive upside than Arcia and Pratt. That said, his home run output in the minor leagues wasn't too different from Pratt's. When Hardy joined the majors, however, his bat broke out, and the "pop" that the Brewers were hoping their shortstop prospect would tap into did eventually arrive. Hardy slugged 26 homers during his 2007 All-Star campaign and 24 longballs in '08.

While Hardy's output took a step back in 2009, his final season in Milwaukee, and 2010 after he joined the Minnesota Twins, he regained his form with the Baltimore Orioles in 2011, slugging 30 homers and compiling 4.1 bWAR. Hardy was once again an All-Star in 2013 -- his third of four straight seasons with 3.0 bWAR or higher. All in all, Hardy's first 10 years in MLB, which is the amount of time the Brewers have Pratt under contract, resulted in 26.3 bWAR or 2.6 bWAR per season. During that span, he earned three Gold Gloves, two All-Star Game appearances, and one Silver Slugger Award.

Given Pratt's contract, which will pay him a reasonable $50.75 million for the first eight seasons of his major league career, the Brewers would certainly be happy if he turned out to be a 2.5-3.0 WAR per season player. He likely won't ever post the 25+ homer seasons that Hardy did, but he's bound to get on base more consistently than Hardy and could certainly get to 15-20 homers as he continues to develop.

A career closer to Hardy's feels far more likely for Pratt than one that comes to resemble Arcia's. Ironically, of the three, Arcia was the highest-ranked prospect of the three at the time of their respective debuts, and while he showed flashes of production, inconsistency ultimately hurt his career. In Pratt, the Brewers are likely to get a more consistent player who continues to improve as his career continues. Whether or not that career ever reaches Hardy's level remains to be seen, but Pratt certainly has the tools to succeed in a Brewers uniform.

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