What Brewers fans should expect from former ace Freddy Peralta in Game 3 of World Series

The Milwaukee Brewers will face Freddy Peralta in Game 3 of the World Series. What a difference a year makes.

In the time since Peralta served as the ace of the Brewers' pitching staff during their memorable 2025 season, the right-hander was traded to the New York Mets, where his effectiveness stalled, and then traded again to the Tampa Bay Rays at the midseason trade deadline. In Tampa Bay, Peralta returned to his dominant self due to a series of mechanical changes and alterations to his pitch mix.

The Rays got rid of Peralta's over-the-head wind-up, opting to have him pitch solely out of the stretch, they moved him to the far right side of the rubber, raised his arm angle, and increased his extension on the mound. Additionally, the Rays elected to have Peralta lean more on his changeup than he did with the Mets and decreased his slider use. The pitch arsenal changes moved Peralta closer to the mix that he utilized with the Brewers, but he's relying on his changeup more than ever before while throwing his slider less than he did during his final seasons in Milwaukee.

The surface-level results of these changes have been eye-popping. In New York, Peralta posted a 4.99 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in 22 starts, but as a member of the Rays, he maintained a 3.25 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in 10 starts. Peralta finished the regular season with a 0.96 ERA in five starts during the month of September, which earned him American League Pitcher of the Month honors.

In the postseason, Peralta has a 1.08 ERA in 16.1 innings across four appearances. The Rays have won every game he's appeared in, and the right-hander was named the MVP of the American League Championship Series. His resume since being traded to the Rays would seem to indicate that the Brewers are in for a tall task in Game 3 of the World Series, which they certainly are. However, there's also reason to believe that the Brewers' lineup is a very tough matchup for Peralta and could spoil their former ace's strong postseason run.

Brewers' lineup poses a difficult challenge for former ace Freddy Peralta in Game 3 of World Series

For starters, as good as Peralta's surface-level numbers have been since his trade to the Rays, the underlying metrics indicate that the veteran right-hander's true effectiveness hasn't changed much since his move to Tampa Bay. For example, while the change in Peralta's ERA after the trade (as seen above) was drastic, his expected ERA went from 3.86 to 3.74 after he was dealt to the Rays. His FIP (fielding independent pitching) and SIERA (skill interactive ERA) actually got worse after his trade to Tampa Bay. He's also maintaining a lower strikeout rate, allowing a higher barrel rate, and other metrics like average exit velocity and hard-hit rate have seen only modest improvements since the trade. Peralta has certainly been more effective in Tampa Bay than he was in New York, but the improvements may not be as genuine as the surface-level numbers indicate.

Then, there's the specific matchup with the Brewers' lineup. Brewers fans are very familiar with Peralta's tendency to rack up high pitch counts early in games. He often finds himself in deep counts with opposing hitters, making it not at all uncommon for his pitch count to reach concerning levels by the fourth or fifth inning. Pair that trait with the fact that Milwaukee's lineup does a better job than most other offenses at working counts, laying off pitches out of the zone, and spoiling would-be put-away offerings, and the matchup appears to lean in the Brewers' favor.

Additionally, the Brewers excel at hitting right-handed four-seam fastballs up in the zone, which has been Peralta's bread-and-butter during his recent hot stretch. Against elevated in-zone four-seam fastballs this year, William Contreras (.859 xOPS), Jake Bauers (.808 xOPS), Sal Frelick (.304 xBA), and Cooper Pratt (.706 xOPS), have all found success.

However, it's not just the fact that the Brewers are a good fastball-hitting team that makes them a tough matchup for Peralta; they are also the most disciplined offense in MLB, as evidenced by their league-leading chase rate. Therefore, assuming Peralta relies heavily on his changeup, which he's likely to do given the Brewers' success against four-seam fastballs, the pressure will be on Peralta to locate his top secondary offering in the zone. Otherwise, he risks issuing free passes to the Brewers' incredibly patient offense. Notably, Peralta is maintaining a 30.5% in-zone rate with his changeup this year, which is the worst mark since the 2021 season when he first introduced the pitch.

The results have been excellent for Freddy Peralta over the last two months, but there's certainly reason to believe that regression is on the horizon. If that regression should arrive, it would make sense that it happens against an offense like the Brewers', which is both strong against right-handed four-seam fastballs and disciplined on pitches out of the zone.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow