What could a full season of Garrett Mitchell look like in 2026?

When examining the Milwaukee Brewers’ potential 2026 Opening Day lineup, one position sticks out as a remaining question mark as the offseason enters its second half. Milwaukee is essentially set in the infield with the group likely to consist of Andrew Vaughn and Jake Bauers in a platoon at first base, Platinum Glove second baseman Brice Turang holding down the keystone position, 2025 Rookie of the Year candidate Caleb Durbin manning the hot corner, and Joey Ortiz, whom the Brewers are hoping for a bounce-back season out of in 2026, as the starting shortstop. With William Contreras set for his fourth season as the Brewers' backstop, the starting catching situation is an easy one as well. Where things get a little less certain is on the outfield grass.

Two spots are set, with Jackson Chourio and Sal Frelick locked into starting roles, but who will join them as the third outfielder is not yet decided. The Brewers have options like Blake Perkins, who profiles better as a fourth outfielder given the versatile profile he pairs with a below-league-average bat, and Brandon Lockridge, who the team is seemingly expecting to break out after surrendering talented infield prospect Jorge Quintana at the 2025 trade deadline to acquire him. Akil Baddoo, who the Brewers signed to a split contract in early December, is an intriguing bounce-back candidate as well. However, Milwaukee is instead hoping for a fourth option with a much higher ceiling than Perkins, Lockridge, or Baddoo to turn in a fully healthy season in 2026 and join Chourio and Frelick as an everyday outfielder.

When the Brewers drafted Garrett Mitchell in the first round of the 2020 draft, the upside was undeniable. The then 23-year-old had just completed a shortened junior season at UCLA, and as the 6th-ranked draft prospect by MLB Pipeline, Mitchell didn't have a single below-average tool. His blend of speed, power, and defensive acumen made Brewers fans excited for what he could bring to the big-league club in the not-so-distant future.

A quick rise through the minor leagues, which was concerningly riddled with injuries, landed Mitchell's MLB debut in late August of 2022. He immediately added a spark to a lifeless Brewers team, but Milwaukee ultimately came up short of the postseason. Mitchell returned as the Brewers' Opening Day center fielder when the 2023 season arrived, but a shoulder subluxation before the end of April abruptly stopped his true rookie season, which was off to a strong start.

The following season, 2024, Mitchell got a delayed start due to a fractured index finger that kept him out until July 1. When he returned, he was once again an electric addition to the Brewers' lineup, posting an OPS north of .800 in the 69 regular season games he played in. A memorable home run in Game 2 of the 2024 NL Wild Card series capped what Mitchell was hoping was the season to kick-start a string of healthy years. Unfortunately, that wasn't the case, as Mitchell suffered a season-ending shoulder injury while rehabbing from an oblique strain that he suffered in late April of 2025, limiting his most recent campaign to just 25 games.

2025 also marked the first time that Mitchell struggled at the plate for a prolonged period of time in MLB. He posted a meager .580 OPS that had some Brewers fans worried that his concerning underlying metrics had finally caught up to him. Mitchell's track record poses an interesting outlook for the 2026 season, but one that will only come to fruition if he can remain healthy for the entire season.

When healthy, Garrett Mitchell is still clearly the Brewers best internal option for their third outfield spot in 2026

Let's first dive into those underlying metrics that had some Brewers fans nodding their heads without surprise when Mitchell struggled out of the gates in 2025. Perhaps most concerning is Mitchell's strikeout rate; in a limited sample size, less than 162 MLB games in fact, Mitchell has a 33.9% strikeout rate in the majors. For reference, the league-average strikeout rate generally hovers around the low 20s. It's not that Mitchell doesn't have good plate discipline -- he grades out well when it comes to walk and chase rates -- but rather his whiff rate is what leads to his inflated strikeout numbers.

Additionally, Mitchell's incredibly high career batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .376 suggests that his career batting average of .254, which is by no means head-turning, is due in part to good luck. And yet, with all of these signs pointing to at least some regression from Mitchell in 2026, if the now-27-year-old can stay healthy, he remains Milwaukee's best option to not only assume the third outfield spot, but the starting center field role.

For one, Mitchell raises his floor significantly by being an elite defensive center fielder and one of the fastest players in all of baseball. Though Perkins' glove is slightly better and Lockridge's speed is a tick higher, Mitchell offers a baserunning-defense combo that neither can rival on their own.

Additionally, Mitchell's ceiling is raised by his power potential. Yes, he strikes out a lot and therefore has a relatively average career on-base percentage of .333 (higher than both Perkins and Lockridge for what it's worth), but Mitchell pairs it with a career slugging percentage of .433 that Perkins and Lockridge could only dream of.

In terms of projecting Mitchell's 2026 statline, both FanGraphs' and Baseball Reference’s projection models offer unsatisfying results as each of them expects Mitchell to be limited to far less than half of the games next season. However, both are encouraged by Mitchell's abilities when he's on the field; extrapolating FanGraphs' projection of seven homers in 57 games gives Mitchell a HR total in the 15-20 range if he can stay healthy for most of the season.

Both models expect Mitchell's 2026 batting average to be worse than .250, but his slugging percentage to be better than .390, with Baseball Reference offering a bullish projection of .420. Additionally, both models expect Mitchell to adjust to big-league pitching next year and see his strikeout rate dip below the 30% mark for the first time in his career.

If those averages come true and Mitchell can stay healthy for the entire season, there's no reason to believe an outfield group of Frelick, Chourio, and Mitchell can't be one of the most exciting young trios in all of baseball. Here's hoping the Brewers' 2020 first-round pick's MLB story is far from written.