What the Milwaukee Brewers must do to avoid a late-season collapse

The Milwaukee Brewers are still in a strong position as play opens on September 10, but it’s a familiar spot that comes with cautious optimism.

According to FanGraphs, the Brewers currently hold a 100% chance to make the playoffs, a 98.9% chance to win the division, and an 98.6% chance of securing a first-round bye. Furthermore, they are eight wins away from setting a new franchise record, which means that they just need to play .500 ball over the final 16 games of the season to officially go down as the best Brewers team in franchise history.

That said, Milwaukee has found itself in a similar position before. In both 2023 and 2024, the Brewers built sizable leads in the NL Central and went on to win the division by nine and ten games, respectively. A 6.5-game cushion over the Chicago Cubs should be more than enough to secure another NL Central title; however, if history has taught us anything, a well-timed injury can quickly derail momentum.

To some degree, avoiding that kind of disruption is out of the Brewers’ hands, but it will be key if the Milwaukee hopes to turn a strong regular season into a deep postseason run.

Avoiding another devastating late-season injury will be key for the Milwaukee Brewers to avoid a late-season collapse

As the Brewers eye a deep playoff run, staying healthy down the stretch will be crucial to avoiding another early playoff exit. For instance, in 2019, Milwaukee found themselves without Christian Yelich as he fractured his knee cap in early September. They made the Wild Card game without him, but had Ryan Braun hobbling around with a bad calf, Lorenzo Cain sprained his ankle with just a few games left in the regular season, and ace at the time Brandon Woodruff was not fully built back up after returning from an oblique injury.

A couple of years later, Devin Williams was lost for the postseason following an injury to his pitching hand during the team's celebration of their NL Central Division title. In 2023, Brandon Woodruff was shockingly announced out against the Arizona Diamondbacks due to a capsular issue in his shoulder that went on to require surgery and a lengthy recovery process. Finally, last year, while not as late in the season, Milwaukee had to compete in the postseason without Yelich, as he underwent back surgery while in the midst of a resurgent season.

While not all of these past injuries were preventable, manager Pat Murphy should prioritize keeping his roster as close to full strength as possible heading into this year’s postseason. That hasn't always been the team’s approach, as just last year, Sal Frelick’s playoff availability was uncertain after a late-season collision with the outfield wall while chasing a foul ball.

Striking the right balance between staying aggressive and managing workload will be key for Milwaukee over the final month. We've seen signs of this already, and really throughout the year, with Jacob Misiorowski on a pitch count, Brandon Woodruff getting extra rest, and Yelich working primarily as the designated hitter.

Earning a first-round bye would provide valuable rest and help the Brewers' efforts to enter the playoffs at full health, and if the Brewers hope to win their first playoff series since 2018, health will be absolutely essential to avoiding a late-season collapse.