Why Ángel Zerpa may have already thrown his last pitch in a Brewers uniform

When the Milwaukee Brewers traded Isaac Collins and Nick Mears to the Kansas City Royals for reliever Ángel Zerpa during the offseason, many in the industry were initially perplexed by the deal. On the surface, the Brewers were giving up an outfielder who finished fourth in National League Rookie of the Year voting the season prior in Collins, and a solid reliever who posted a 3.49 ERA in 63 appearances in Mears, for a left-hander with an inconsistent track record in Zerpa.

However, as folks sat with the trade, it started to become much clearer why the Brewers' excellent front office executed the deal. While Collins and Mears outperformed their underlying metrics during the 2025 season, which raised their trade value higher than it otherwise should have been, Zerpa was the opposite: he hadn't yet lived up to his true potential. In that way, the Brewers sold high on two players they felt like they could easily replace for a southpaw with a unique arsenal, who they believed could become a high-leverage weapon.

Initially, the trade looked great for the Brewers. Zerpa was dominant for Team Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic and carried that hot streak into his first few outings of the regular season. Meanwhile, Collins was off to a slow start for the Royals, and Mears, despite having strong early-season numbers, had a far higher expected ERA than actual ERA foreshadowing a regression to a more pedestrian stat line in the near future. It appeared, at least during the early days of April, that the front office's crystal ball was still functioning.

However, what crystal balls or any front office in baseball can't predict are injuries, and following a period of underperformance from Zerpa, the 26-year-old reliever landed on the IL last week due to forearm tightness in his throwing arm. Though the extent of the injury wasn't initially known, forearm tightness often indicates damage in the elbow, which is obviously a devastating injury for any pitcher.

Over the weekend, Brewers beat reporter Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel confirmed that Zerpa does have an elbow injury and is deciding whether or not to undergo Tommy John surgery.

Regardless of whether or not Zerpa does elect to undergo surgery, it's a devastating blow for a reliever who was potentially entering the prime of his career. It's also undoubtedly a blow to the Brewers' bullpen group, who are currently without southpaws Jared Koenig and Rob Zastryzny.

However, Zerpa's injury could have implications beyond the 2026 season. It's possible, given where he stands in the salary arbitration process, that Tommy John surgery in the coming weeks means that the intriguing left-hander may not return to the Brewers' roster in future seasons.

Ángel Zerpa undergoing Tommy John surgery would create a difficult decison for Brewers at next offseason's non-tender deadline

Zerpa went through the arbitration process for the first time this winter, meaning the Brewers have two more years of team control beyond the 2026 season before the southpaw hits free agency. However, if Zerpa does elect to have his elbow surgically repaired, a procedure that generally requires a 12-18 month recovery process, it's possible that he not only misses the rest of the 2026 season, but is also unable to pitch for the entirety of the 2027 campaign.

Such a scenario creates a very difficult decision for the Brewers. Either, they tender Zerpa a contract at next year's non-tender deadline -- in mid-November -- while he's in the midst of his rehab process, knowing that there's a strong possibility he won't pitch until 2028 or they simply cut ties with their recent trade acquisition. Another way of looking at it is that the Brewers would essentially be locking themselves into tendering Zerpa a contract in both 2027 and 2028, because if he's unlikely to pitch in next year, the only reason to give him a contract would be to keep him in the organization for the 2028 season.

Zerpa made $1.095 million in his first year of arbitration this year, and that number won't increase much next offseason if his 2026 campaign does end up being cut short in early May. A 2027 season away from a big-league mound would mean that this 2028 arbitration salary isn't too high either, but for a small-market team like the Brewers, taking a risk on one year of a post-Tommy John reliever for several million dollars doesn't feel like a wise move, especially with the added financial uncertainty of MLB's looming labor negotiations.

It's just a very unfortunate situation all the way around and the timing couldn't be worse. Zerpa was hoping to prove himself as a dominant reliever ahead of free agency and seemingly landed in the perfect organization to do so. The Brewers, meanwhile, gave up a pair of big-league contributors to acquire Zerpa, and now may only get one month of services.

Injuries are a part of baseball, but that doesn't make them any easier to stomach when they pop up. For a promising arm on the cusp of his prime and an organization that put their faith in his breakout, this one is especially hard.

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