Why Brewers still hold edge over Cubs after foolish Alex Bregman splurge

Chicago sports really had a field day against their Wisconsin counterparts over the weekend. In the middle of an all-time playoff collapse by the Green Bay Packers, news broke that the Chicago Cubs were signing third baseman Alex Bregman to a five-year deal.

That latter news raises some serious questions about the hierarchy of the NL Central while the Milwaukee Brewers trudge their way through an understandably slow winter. Considering their response to the signing might be to trade ace Freddy Peralta, it's easy to feel like the Cubs have pushed the Brewers into a corner.

And yet, is Bregman really all that? Sure, his addition in conjunction with the arrival of trade acquisition Edward Cabrera gives the Cubs two new stars to lean on, but is that enough to bridge the gap we saw in 2025?

Brewers silver lining: Alex Bregman is not a one-for-one replacement for Kyle Tucker

Most notably, the Cubs are now all but guaranteed to lose Kyle Tucker in free agency after signing Bregman. They've long been reluctant to hand out nine-figure deals, and it's a sure bet that the third baseman was their big splash.

Though he covers a lot of holes in their lineup, Bregman isn't quite the player that Tucker is. He's three years Tucker's senior and missed a lot of time with a quad injury last season. Likewise, he hasn't been at his most impactful level since 2018 and 2019, when he finished top-five in AL MVP voting.

In fact, the former Houston Astros teammates haven't been at the same level for quite some time, either. Tucker's wRC+ has outpaced Bregman's output in five of the last six seasons, including 2025 (136 wRC+ for Tucker, 125 for Bregman).

Even though the elder player is still well above average at the plate, there's a big difference between being 22% better than average (as Bregman has been over the past three years) and 47% better than average (Tucker's mark since 2023).

Factor in Edward Cabrera's own lengthy injury history and the loss of top prospect Owen Caissie, and it's clear that the Cubs haven't completely insulated themselves from another disappointing campaign. In addition, they'll have to sort through an infield logjam that also includes uncertainty surrounding Matt Shaw's sophomore campaign and soon-to-be free agent Nico Hoerner, who is reportedly garnering plenty of interest on the trade market following the Cubs' signing of Bregman.

The Brewers can't simply hope for the worst when it comes to the Cubs — they have to make their own upgrades and additions before the winter is over. But for those ready to portend doom for the Crew's NL Central chances, may I remind you that the Cubs were also the heavy favorites after adding Tucker last year?