Why Sal Frelick's offensive numbers should improve as 2026 season continues

Memorial Day is often viewed as an important checkpoint on the baseball calendar. By that point in the season, everyday players have typically accumulated close to 200 plate appearances -- about one-third of a full season's workload. As a result, statistics tend to stabilize more compared to the wild fluctuations seen earlier in the year, making it a much better time to evaluate the type of season a player is truly having.

One unexpected concern for the Milwaukee Brewers through the first third of the season has been the offensive struggles of outfielder Sal Frelick, who logged 182 plate appearances, entering play on Sunday. Now in his fourth MLB season, Frelick owns just a 70 wRC+, trailing not only Garrett Mitchell and his league-average 101 mark, but the currently injured Brandon Lockridge at 109, and the recently returned Jackson Chourio at 115.

Further illustrating his well below-average offensive production is Frelick’s current .222/.292/.304 slash line, and just four stolen bases on the year. However, there are reasons to believe a turnaround could be on the horizon.

Why Sal Frelick's offensive numbers should improve as 2026 season continues

Frelick does not possess the most overwhelming offensive profile on paper. He does not generate elite exit velocities, barrel rates, or much power production, yet just a season ago he still managed to post a .288 batting average along with a strong 114 wRC+.

One of the biggest reasons for his success over the years has been his ability to maintain a high batting average on balls in play (BABIP), often by spraying contact to areas defenders are not positioned or using his speed to beat out infield hits.

This season, Frelick owns a career-worst .232 BABIP despite maintaining a very similar batted-ball profile to previous years. With defensive shift restrictions no longer playing as much of a role, much of that decline can likely be attributed to early-season bad luck and variance. If that number begins to normalize closer to his career average of .298, his batting average and overall offensive production should rise with it.

One specific area where Frelick will need to improve is against fastballs. This season, he is hitting just .153 against heaters after posting batting averages of .297 and .282 against the pitch over the previous two years. Interestingly, pitchers are attacking him with fastballs at a career-high 42% rate, suggesting there may be a timing or mechanical adjustment that still needs to be made.

Should Frelick make the necessary adjustment on fastballs, expect his batting average to continue creeping up as some of his batted ball luck changes. However, with one-third of the season in the books, Frelick needs that luck to change quickly.

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