Milwaukee Brewers Roundtable: Ideal Future Bullpen

Trevor

The future of the bullpen is a tricky discussion because relievers can change so swiftly. That being said, there are a few guys in the minors and a few predictions to make. Some, if not all, might be some unpopular opinion.

To me, the farm is full of some guys who potentially fill out a bullpen very well. First is Taylor Williams, who if you remember is a September call-up. He threw for a sub two ERA in his short stint with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2017. The odds are he will find himself back in the minors to start 2018, but he should be able to work back into the bullpen to be a solid and reliable arm.

The other name I want to mention is Drake Owenby. The southpaw is starting right now, but I truly believe he will be better suited in the bullpen going forward. His numbers are pretty solid, but his projection as a starter is not as good as some of the other young arms in the organization.

If there is no disagreement yet, don’t worry, here it comes. As excellent as Corey Knebel is, I think he should be dealt either during or after the 2019 season. He will still have two years of control, giving him value. And yes, I have a plan on who will close games.

The new closer is already in the system, and it is Josh Hader. Look, his history is to not have pinpoint accuracy. It worked for him in 2017 out of the bullpen, and it will work for him as a closer. It will not bode well for him as a starting pitcher for the Milwaukee Brewers. In order to get the most value out of his arm, the team needs to play to his skillset.

Moving Knebel and putting Hader in as the closer is what I see as the best move for the future of the bullpen. It is hard to see a former high ranking pitching prospect as just a closer, but sometimes it happens like that.

Look at Archie Bradley in Arizona, who  didn’t get his ERA below five before becoming a reliever. Now he is dominant. The same goes for Shane Greene in Detroit. There are a lot of examples of guys struggling as a starter and thriving as a reliever. Hader is already thriving, so why bring the potential, and what I would say is inevitable, struggle into the equation?

Isaac

Trevor brings up some great points. I’m a huge fan of Taylor Williams pitching out of the bullpen, as I think he’ll be able to add some velocity with the shorter spurts of action. I think he can work his way into a seventh-inning role as soon as this year if all goes according to plan.

I personally am a strong believer in Jacob Barnes, as well. He faded down the stretch last season, but I think that was more a result of it being his first full MLB season than anything. Let’s not forget that Barnes had a sub-3.00 ERA into the month of June and still amassed 24 holds despite his struggles. I only see him improving as he gets more accustomed to the big leagues, which bodes well for the Brewers’ bullpen.

In the case of Josh Hader, I think he should stretch out a bit, but not fully into a starter. I like the idea of him being able to toss two or three dominant innings at a time out of the bullpen in a fashion similar to Andrew Miller. If a starter has a relatively short outing, the Brewers can bring in Hader to dominate a few innings and bridge the gap to Barnes and Knebel in the back end.

One final name for the ideal bullpen moving forward is Wei-Chung Wang. Sure, he hasn’t pitched well in the majors. His 2.05 ERA in hitter-friendly Colorado Springs is nothing to scoff at, though. He also struck out four times as many batters as he walked at Triple-A, so he could be a nice left-handed compliment to Barnes and Knebel in the back end of the bullpen.

Max

The Milwaukee Brewers need one more piece to complete their bullpen. The Brewers should add two pieces in my opinion.

As of January, 10, MLB’s Brewers beat writer Adam McCalvy guessed the bullpen would look like this on Opening Day:

Closer: Corey Knebel

LH setup: Josh Hader

RH setup: Jacob Barnes

LHP Boone Logan

RHP Jeremy Jeffress

RHP J.J. Hoover

RHP Oliver Drake or Junior Guerra

The Brewers direly need one more potent setup/closer type. Jacob Barnes only looked good for the first two months in 2017. He is young and maintained a good strikeout rate the whole year, which is promising. However, he has not earned the top setup honors due to inconsistency..

No one can guarantee that former Brewers closer Jeremy Jeffress can slide back into that role after poor results outside of the Brewers organization. Therefore, Milwaukee needs to sign or trade for that extra piece.

Oliver Drake struggled all season in 2017. His ERA snuck over 4.00 every single month. Perhaps Counsell overused him, but the team needs someone with a rubber arm. Junior Guerra could work as his replacement and potential longman. Depending on how the starting rotation pans out, Yovani Gallardo could be a great replacement for Drake as well.

Brewers General Manager David Stearns has done a good job of signing relievers off the scrapheap during the offseason. Boone Logan is one of these players. The back of Logan’s baseball card is hard to read due to a stint in Colorado and his being a lefty-specialist. Perhaps he can flourish for the Brewers by dominating big NL Central lefties such as Anthony Rizzo and Joey Votto late in games.

J.J. Hoover might not even make the Brewers roster. He signed a minor league contract, and he will compete for a spot on the big league roster during Spring Training. Hoover will likely provide depth in the organization while younger players such as Taylor Williams get a shot on the main Brewers roster.

The Colorado Rockies edged out the Brewers by one game for a postseason spot last year. That franchise has led an MLB trend to load up with a slew of great relievers. The Brewers do not need to break the bank this offseason, but they need to consider who they want to build their bullpen on going forward.

Last season, Josh Hader broke out and showed his ability to go multiple innings per appearance and maintain a K/9 of 12.84. For perspective, New York Yankees flamethrower Aroldis Chapman fell short of that K-rate last season.

Hader could project as a future closer, but he might be even more valuable as an Andrew Miller-type swingman. Having a dominant pitcher that can get more than three outs at any time has become a revelation in baseball strategy recently.

Brewers 26 year-old closer Corey Knebel built up a 3.7 WAR in 2017. Like Hader, Knebel struck out hitters at an elite rate. However, Knebel had a problem with control. His strikeouts got him out of jams more often than not, but the Brewers might look to trade Knebel for what could be a huge haul at the 2018 trade deadline.

The Brewers acquired Travis Shaw and highly-rated prospect Mauricio Dubon for Tyler Thornburg. Knebel could be worth more in July of 2018 than Thornburg was when he netted Milwaukee that haul.

History shows closers can develop and come out of nowhere. The Brewers have had four different players lead the team in Saves over the last five seasons. Moving Knebel in 2018 could greatly benefit the team going forward.

Stearns has done a good job building organizational depth in relief pitching this offseason with shrewd signings of players such as J.J. Hoover. That being said, the Brewers still need one more dominant setup man and could use another key arm to avoid injuries and compete.

John

As Trevor pointed out, bullpens have so much turn over from year to year that it’s hard to speculate what it might look like. However, Milwaukee is in an admirable position right now, and moving forward, throughout the entire pitching staff.

I agree with Trevor about Josh Hader too. Hader pitching in the rotation is tantalizing, but he will have more impact from the bullpen. As a closer Hader can come in and pitch multiple innings when needed, making it a pretty natural fit. However, I do have to disagree about trading Corey Knebel. When Hader is ready to close, Jacob Barnes and Knebel can handle the the 7th and 8th, respectively.

Barnes is an intriguing option. He’s young and nasty on the hill. When he’s right he is tough to hit. Knebel is a”go to work and do my job” type of player. He is filthy on the mound and it showed in 2017 how tough he is to hit, setting records along the way.

Hader is downright scary when he toes the rubber. That arm angle and velocity, mixed with iffy command, make it uncomfortable for any left-handed hitter stepping into the batters box. I loved watching Joey Votto nervously bounce around in the box when facing Hader last season. If you can knock a hitter like that off balance then you know you’re doing something right.

The best part about these three is the amount of team control left with all of them. The Milwaukee Brewers have the potential to have cost controlled, quality, pitchers everywhere in the pen. Drake is a placeholder at this point, and I could definitely see Wei-Chung Wang or Taylor Williams taking his role this season.

Jeremy Jeffress, who has always been a productive player in Milwaukee, will be here as well. He’ll pitch in big situations earlier in the ballgame for the Brewers, helping escape jams when the starter struggles early. Wang, Williams, and a whole slew of other pitchers will help fill out the pen.

The long guys and LOOGY’s are so interchangeable that it’s pointless to speculate on that. However, I hope Boone Logan works out and provides quality innings for this team moving forward. The more left-handed pitchers a team has the better is my philosophy.

The Milwaukee Brewers are well stocked in the bullpen, this season, and beyond. However, there’s usually a free agent or two every season as well. It’s likely The Crew will still be adding a pitcher who is not currently with the organization who will play a vital role in the next playoff push.

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The Crew has quality starting and relief pitchers sprinkled throughout every level of the Minors. For most of these players, the bullpen will be their best path to MLB. The Brewers are in good shape and the future is bright because of this depth. It is definitely a strength for this pitching staff headed into the future. When the rotation catches up, this team will be tough to beat.