Milwaukee Brewers: Was Sending Keston Hiura Down the Right Move?

With regression likely on the cards, and roster congestion becoming a real issue, the Milwaukee Brewers put off some difficult decisions by sending Keston Hiura down for Travis Shaw.

There are a couple of reasons why the Milwaukee Brewers decided to send down Hiura to make way for Shaw on the active roster.

The first, and overarching reason, why the Brewers sent Hiura down was that it put off some of major roster issues the team is going to have to address moving forward.

If the Brewers were going to maintain having an extra arm on the team, as they prefer to do, a position player was always going to have to make way for Travis Shaw to be reactivated.

Among the guys on the active roster, there were very few choices to send down out of the crop of position players on the team. Starters such as Christian Yelich, Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas, Ryan Braun, Orlando Arcia, and Lorenzo Cain, were never going to be sent down given how well they’re playing in the starting line-up at the moment.

Few of the rotation players have remaining options either. Jacob Nottingham was occupying a roster spot until Manny Pina was activated off of the IL over the weekend. Every team needs to have a back-up catcher on their active roster at all times.

Hernan Perez is the team’s sole utility player, and has no remaining options available.

Ben Gamel, who has one minor league option left, is the team’s only player capable of playing all three outfield positions, well. He had the sixth highest WAR (0.7) on the team entering play on Tuesday night. He too, had earned his spot on the team.

The one position where Milwaukee has struggled so far this season, first base, was left with few options either. Eric Thames is providing the team with serviceable, albeit inconsistent production. However, his production has made him indispensable right now given how poorly Jesus Aguilar is playing. Aguilar has no remaining minor league options, meaning any move sending him down would likely result in the Brewers losing him to a non-contending team on waivers.

With Shaw coming back to third base, then, Hiura was the logical position player to move. Mike Moustakas has played too well not to start regularly for the club. In order to play every day, with Shaw back, he would need to return to second base.  This, in turn, would take almost all of Hiura’s playing time away, potentially stunting his development.

Were there other factors in play?

It’s also likely that the Milwaukee Brewers sent Hiura down because his underlying batting stats suggested serious regression was on its way at the plate.

Though it was a small sample size, Hiura posted a very solid slash line of .281/.333/.531 in his 69 at bats. What was concerning, however, was that his strikeout percentage was quite high (33.3%), his walk percentage quite low (4.3%), and his Batting Average on Balls In Play was .361, well above the .323 mark he set in over 300 at bats in Double-A last season.

Hiura also committed a couple of errors in the field during his time up (four in 16 starts and 17 appearances overall), and was a net negative on that end  overall (-1 Defensive Runs saved, and a below league average defensive rating of -2.6). This too, could have been a potential concern.

One final thing lending in favor of the move is what Shaw could provide if he’s right at the plate. If Shaw were to produce like he had in the previous two seasons (3.5 WAR in 2017 and 3.6 in 2018), it’s unlikely that Hiura would be able to match his production too. Thus, Shaw’s immediate upside was likely beyond that which Hiura could provide over an entire season, even if he continued to hit as well as he had.

Given all of this, then, the Brewers front office felt that sending Hiura down was the right move.

There is, however, considerable downside to the move.

There were several reasons why sending Keston Hiura down for Travis Shaw was a mistake for the Milwaukee Brewers.

Though there were several good reasons for sending Hiura down for Shaw, there were several compelling reasons not to.

First, although Hiura’s underlying numbers suggested some regression at the plate was likely forthcoming, his production up until this point was absolutely incredible on offense. In fact, his offensive production over his first 16 Major League games looked quite familiar.

Hiura was widely regarded as one of the best hitting prospects in baseball before the season began. In fact, Baseball America wrote before the season began, that Hiura may be the team’s best hitting prospect since Ryan Braun. His start to the season, both at Triple-A, and on the Major League roster, did nothing to dispel those lofty comparisons.

Had Hiura struggled in his limited Major League exposure while Shaw was down, the decision would have been an easy one for all involved. However, with Hiura producing similar production to 2007 Braun on offense, it seemed like a no-brainer for the club to keep their top prospect and potential building-block of the future on the team.

Has there been a similar scenario in the past?

Perhaps most Milwaukee Brewers fans anger could be summarized perfectly by this analogy: What if the Brewers decided back in 2007 to send Braun down, after his incredible start to his Major League career, because Bill Hall was back from the Injured List?

That is, of course, a bit of an unfair comparison for Shaw. Hall was never the consistent player that Shaw has been, though his two peak seasons in Milwaukee may have been better. However, given how poor Shaw was playing before his injury, it’s not a stretch to compare the two.

Milwaukee was not in a position where they needed to rush Shaw back into the line-up either. Unlike the struggling Aguilar, Shaw DOES have a minor league option left. Given that his batting line in Triple-A wasn’t lights out on his rehab assignment (.235/.357.324 with just one extra base hit in 34 at-bats) it seemed like a considerable risk for Milwaukee to rush him back so soon, especially when considering how bad he was before his IL stint (his WAR of -0.8 entering play Tuesday night was tied with Aguilar for the worst on the team).

Was there another move that could have been made?

The choice of who to keep on the roster was also a false one in another way. Milwaukee has carried an extra bullpen arm most of the season. With off-days upcoming, and options aplenty in the bullpen to send down, Milwaukee could have sent one of their arms down to keep Hiura on the roster for the time-being. He may have struggled to start regularly if this happened, but he would have given the Brewers another solid bat to rotate into the team,  increasing the competition in the line-up as a whole.

The final issue with sending Hiura down for Shaw, is that it punts on the roster issues the team will have to address in the not so distant future. Jesus Aguilar is quickly approaching the time to be DFA’d from the team. Though it may not be the ideal move because of his past production and his presence in the club house, his spot, not Shaw’s, is what’s preventing Milwaukee from keeping Hiura on the active roster right now. If he doesn’t turn it around in the very near future, Milwaukee will be forced into a move there anyway.

Given all of this, then, how does the move grade out?

Given everything surrounding the moves, it was mistake, albeit a temporary one, for the Milwaukee Brewers to have sent Keston Hiura down.

It a mistake for the Milwaukee Brewers to have sent Hiura down for Shaw. It is, however, a temporary one.

If Shaw comes back and hits like he did in each of the previous two seasons, much will be forgiven. The Brewers were confident enough in what they saw beyond the box score to believe Shaw was back to his old ways by the end of his rehab assignment. There’s a distinct possibility that he’s closer to his 2017-18 production upon his return, something the team could surely use.

What needs to be addressed, though, is their first base situation. Given Aguilar’s continued slump, the Brewers are quickly approaching the point of no return with him. Milwaukee deferred on making a move with him now because Hiura had options. That move, however, will only continue to look worse if Aguilar remains where he is now, and Hiura continues to rake in Triple-A.

Hiura is the future of the Milwaukee Brewers. Sending him down, while he was performing at high level, was a mistake. Milwaukee could have experimented with more aggressive player rotation to keep him in the line-up had they sent an arm down instead of him.

The mistake, however, is minor. It’s very likely that Hiura will return to the Major League roster soon. Everyone will be glad to see him back when he is!