Milwaukee Brewers: Position Player Trade Targets

Whit Merrifield, RHB 2B/OF, Kansas City Royals

As we’ve discussed in our previous two trade preview articles, the MLB Trade deadline is shaping up to be a sellers market. Only seven teams in baseball, as of July 10th, appear to be far enough out of contention to be considered as clear sellers ahead of the July 31st deadline.

The position player market, more than even the relief or starting pitching markets, will be extremely short of talent. None of the players currently ranked in the top 30 on FanGraphs in WAR are better than even odds to move. Even the players we will discuss in this article are more likely than not to remain on their teams past the July 31st deadline.

The top position player that is likely to be realistically available in trade conversations is Kansas City Royals second baseman/outfielder: Whit Merrifield.

Merrifield is a name Milwaukee Brewers fans will recognize. The Brewers were linked with him last July when they were looking for options to improve at second base ahead of the non-waiver deadline.

Merrifield has emerged as one of the best second basemen in the game. Merrifield finished second among second basemen last year in WAR at a 5.2. Only Javier Baez, who split time across the diamond, but primarily played at shortstop, was better than him (5.3 WAR) in 2018. He’s been solid again in 2019 so far, posting a 2.3 WAR going into the break.

He’s an excellent contact hitter with elite speed on the bases. Merrifield stole 34 bases in 2017, 45 last season, and has 14 stolen bases to his name so far in 2019. His speed grades out in the 87th percentile among all major league players so far this season.

He’s hitting a career best .306 as well after reaching a career high in average (.304) just one season ago. He’s also improved his OPS over each season he’s been the league, getting past the .800 mark last season (.806) and posting a career best mark of .850 this season.

The underlying numbers behind Merrifield’s bat are extremely encouraging as well. Merrifield is making hard contact on 41.2% of his batted balls in play this season, a 4.3% improvement over his career best mark last year. He’s never been a top-tier player in exit velocity (he’s ranks in just the 23rd percentile at 87.2 MPH in 2019), but he’s able to leg out hits consistently, including doubles and triples, thanks to his top-notch speed.

Merrifield also exerts decent control of the strike zone. His walk percentage hit a career best mark of 8.6% in 2018, but has dipped  to 6.5% in 2019. However, he’s made contact on 82.8% of his swings throughout his career, including a solid 89.2% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone. There isn’t that much swing-and-miss to his game.

In addition to being a solid offensive player, Merrifield has demonstrated respectable defensive skills across multiple positions. Merrifield has been above average in Defensive Runs Saved at second base in every season of his career, and has been good for two DRS in each of the past two seasons in the outfield. He’s a better defender at second than he is in center or right field, but he’s still capable of being a net positive when asked to move around the field.

Given his positional flexibility, and his great offensive profile, Merrifield may make sense for the Milwaukee Brewers. Even with Keston Hiura in the fold now at second base, the Brewers could definitely use someone of his quality towards the top of the order. His ability to play second and the outfield would make him a very valuable utility option who can start every day at four different positions, thus easing the load that’s been carried by the likes Christian Yelich and Mike Moustakas thus far.

Kansas City has indicated publicly that it will take a lot for them to consider moving him this summer. He recently signed a contract extension on a very team-friendly deal that has him under team control through 2023, meaning the Royals have little incentive to move him.

Merrifield is, however, 30 years old, and Kansas City isn’t exactly close to becoming a playoff contender either as their second-worst record in the league (30-61) shows. Given the lack of other top-notch options that are likely to be available, the Royals would be wise to seriously entertain cashing out on him this summer while his value is at its peak.

Michael Conforto, LHB, OF, New York Mets

The second best position player who could move on the trade market this summer is New York Mets outfielder Michael Conforto.

Conforto has emerged as a solid corner outfielder over the past several years. Conforto broke onto the scene in 2015, posting a 1.9 WAR in his debut season for the Mets. He struggled significantly the following year, but rebounded after 2016 by posting a WAR of 4.4 and 3.0 in 2017 and 2018. He’s been good for 1.6 WAR so far in 2019.

Almost all of Conforto’s value comes from his bat. He’s posted an OPS+ over 120 in all but one season that he’s been in the majors. He’s not a consistent contact hitter, as his .243 and .244 averages in the past two years show, but he draws a lot of walks and has a decent amount of power.

Conforto has posted a walk percentage above 10% in all but his rookie year in the big leagues. His walk percentage so far in 2019 is a career best 13.9%. His slugging percentage is .470 this year, above his .448 mark last year, but below his career best mark of .555 in 2017.

His offensive profile is similar to Travis Shaw‘s from last season. Conforto doesn’t hit the ball hard that often (he’s in the 27th percentile in exit velocity this year and 29th percentile in hard contact%), but he does have the ability to hit a good amount of home runs. He has 16 to his name so far this season, and had 27 and 28 in the previous two seasons.

He’s also demonstrated a solid feel for the strike zone. His strikeout rate is over 22% this season (22.9%), but that’s quite a bit better than it was in his previous three seasons (he was over 25% in each of the past three seasons). He rarely chases pitches out of the zone too (25.2% in 2019).

Defensively, Conforto is limited to the corners of the outfield. His best position is in left field where his lack of range and slightly below average arm play best, but he can at least be passable in right field as well. He’s about a league average defender for the corners of the outfield.

Conforto isn’t a clean fit with the Milwaukee Brewers given that they have Ryan Braun and Yelich in the corners of the outfield. However, if the Brewers are looking for a decent power bat to add to their depth, he might make some sense. After all, he is just 26 and under contract through 2021. He could be a potential long-term replacement to take Braun’s spot in left field.

There’s still untapped potential left in his bat. Conforto could be a great fit in a hitter-friendly home like Miller Park. Just don’t bet on New York moving off of him this summer.

Top-Tier, but Unlikely To Move

Beyond Merrifield and Conforto, the top of the trade market for position players is even more scarce. Out of any of the potential top-tier position players to move this summer, only three have even a marginal chance of moving beyond the two we’ve already discussed.

Anthony Rendon, RHB, 3B, Washington Nationals

With his free agency rapidly approaching, rumors were beginning to swirl a few weeks ago that the then scuffling Washington Nationals could consider moving Anthony Rendon.

Since that time, the Nationals have gotten themselves back into the thick of the playoff race in the National League. Rendon has been a major reason for their resurgence.

Rendon would indisputably be the best position player on the market this summer if the Nationals decided to consider offers for him. Though he’s had injury issues throughout his career, Rendon has been one of the best position players in baseball when he’s been on the field.

Rendon is coming off of back-to-back seasons where he has posted a WAR above a six, and has reached that mark three times in his career so far. He finished ninth among all position players in WAR last season (6.2) despite the fact that he played just 136 games.

Offensively, he’s a juggernaut who excels at all facets of the game. Rendon has hit above the .300 mark in three consecutive seasons, while posting an OPS of .903 or better during that time. He has a career best OPS mark of .997 at the all-star break this season.

He doesn’t strike out much (his K% is 15.1% right now after being 13.6% and 13.7% in the previous two seasons). He draws a lot of walks (his BB% has been at or above 10% in all but one MLB season). He also hits for a ton of power too (he had 70 XBH last year and is on pace to set a career best in home runs in 2019).

In addition to his incredible offensive profile, Rendon can be a very good defender. His DRS hasn’t been stellar in either of the past two seasons, but he grades out above average in several other defensive metrics.

Unless Washingon collapses coming out of the break, there is no way that they’ll consider moving him before the July 31st trade deadline. If they do entertain offers, he could fetch them a big return, even as a rental.

Adalberto Mondesi, Switch Hitter, SS/2B, Kansas City Royals

Adalberto Mondesi has emerged as one baseball’s most electrifying infield prospects.

After initially struggling in limited appearances in his first two seasons in the Majors, Mondesi has taken a major leap forward over the past two.

Mondesi was good for a 2.8 WAR one season ago despite the fact that he played in just 75 games! 2019 has been comparable too, as he’s posted a 2.1 WAR in 77 big league games in 2019.

Offensively, Mondesi provides value with his ability to hit for contact and run. He’s Hernan Perez when it comes to walks (his walk percentage is 4.7% right now after being just 3.8% last year), but he’s posted solid batting averages of .276 last season and .268 this season.

Mondesi is arguably the fastest player in baseball. He grades out in the 99th percentile in speed this season. That speed allows him to leg him out a ton of hits, including triples. Mondesi has hit 18 doubles and an MLB high nine triples so far this season. Those extra base hits he runs out are boosting him to a respectable .445 slugging percentage despite the fact that he’s hit only seven home runs.

There are few players in baseball better at stealing bases than him. Mondesi stole 32 bases while being caught seven times a season ago, and is first in the majors at 28 this season while having been caught on just three occasions.

On the defensive side of the game, Mondesi grades out quite highly as well. He’s been good for six Defensive Runs Saved at shortstop and three at second base in 2019. He has the ability to be an elite, gold glove caliber shortstop.

Given how young he is, and how well he’s played, it’s very unlikely that the Royals would even consider trading him this summer. However, if they did, Mondesi could land them an unfathomable return.

His lack of plate discipline remains a major red flag, but if he can improve on that, he’s going to be a great shortstop for years to come.

If the Milwaukee Brewers wanted to pivot away from Orlando Arcia this summer, Mondesi could be worth a serious look.

Tim Anderson, RHB, SS, Chicago White Sox

One final player who could find his way onto to the trade market if circumstances change is Tim Anderson.

Anderson is in the midst of his finest big league season. Though he was a two WAR player in 2016 and 2018, Anderson has already posted a WAR of 1.7 going into the all-star break in 2019.

On the offensive side of the game, much of Anderson’s value is coming from a career best season in batting average (.317) and slugging percentage (.491). He’s flashed decent gap-to-gap power in the past, but he’s never been an elite power hitter, even for his position.

Much of Anderson’s successful batting average this season is fueled by his elite speed on the bases. Anderson grades out in the 87th percentile in speed. He stole a career best 26 bases last season, and has stolen 15 in 2019 while being caught on only four occasions.

Anderson’s also seen a significant uptick in hard contact and exit velocity this year. His average exit velocity is a career best 88.9 MPH and his hard contact percentage is a solid 40.1%. Those numbers, combined with his speed, are helping to fuel an expected batting average and slugging percentage that’s close to his actual numbers at the moment. This suggests that his improvement this year may be sustainable.

Defensively, Anderson is below average this year, but he’s shown the ability to be better in past seasons. He can be at least a major league average defender at shortstop.

Anderson just barely cracks this list. Though he’s in the midst of a career season, there’s still cause for concern. His walk percentage is awful (2.8% in 2019) and his defense has never been above-average on a regular basis. His batting average is also being propped up by an unsustainable BABIP .373. There’s a decent probability that he’s having a season he’s unlikely to have ever

There’s virtually no chance that he’ll actually move this summer too. He just signed an extension through 2024. The White Sox would definitely demand a king’s ransom for him given that they view him as part of their future. Unless the White Sox get an insane return, he’ll remain on the south side of Chicago for the foreseeable future.