Brewers: 3 Players To Lock Up With An Extension Right Now

The Brewers have had an emphasis on adding young talent in recent years and some players are deserving of contract extensions.

“Acquire, develop, retain”. That was the philosophy David Stearns brought to the Brewers when he was hired as the GM in September 2015. He has acquired numerous impact big leaguers, he has developed prospects into capable players, and now the final step is retaining those players.

Stearns has done this a couple times already. Back in February, the Brewers signed Freddy Peralta to a team-friendly, five year contract extension. Then in March, Christian Yelich inked a nine-year extension to keep him with the Brewers long term.

The Brewers could look to complete a few more contract extensions before next season as well.

Although there is a complicating factor in this: a tightened budget. After a season with no fans, the Brewers lost a lot of money and the payroll is likely to go down from the $97MM total they were projected to have in a full 2020 season.

With very little payroll flexibility to begin with, giving out new money to players already on the roster may be tough to do. However, by signing some of these players to extensions now, the Brewers may end up saving themselves money in the long run.

1. Brandon Woodruff

Brandon Woodruff is about to become expensive for the Brewers, with or without an extension. Woodruff is entering his first year of arbitration this winter and that means his price is going to be jumping up for the next few years.

Arbitration projections have Woodruff pegged for anywhere between $2.3MM and $4.5MM for a 2021 salary. Should Woodruff continue to pitch the way he has for his first couple of seasons, that cost will continue to go up and the Brewers won’t have much control over that.

Instead, the Brewers could look to get some cost certainty over Woodruff’s salary for the next couple years with a contract extension.

Similar to Peralta’s deal, any extension with Woody would be backloaded, starting with smaller salaries, with something that might reflect what he would’ve earned this first year in arbitration and then gradually increasing as the deal goes on.

Woodruff is under team control for the next four seasons, through 2024. That means any extension with Woodruff would need to be at least five years guaranteed for it to be worth it for both sides and buy out at least one year of free agency.

One possible framework could be the extension of Blake Snell with the Rays in spring 2019. When Snell had four seasons of control left, Tampa Bay signed Snell to a five year, $50MM contract extension that bought out one year of free agency and avoided any arbitration cases. Snell was also coming off a Cy Young award that year as well.

That deal was back-loaded, starting with a $1MM salary in 2019 and ending with a $16MM salary in 2023.

2. Corbin Burnes

The Brewers still have another year of Corbin Burnes earning a near-league minimum salary, so there’s not as much urgency to get an extension done and get some cost certainty over the Crew’s young starter as there is with Woodruff.

However, now might be the most opportune moment for the Brewers to try to sign Burnes to an extension.

To recap Burnes’ career, he came up as a reliever in 2018 and dominated down the stretch, then he transitioned to the starting rotation in 2019 and struggled mightily. In 2020, he got another chance in the rotation and this time, he dominated.

He’s always had the stuff and the potential to dominate in the rotation and we finally saw that happen this year. Now that he’s turned the corner, it would be wise for the Brewers to look to sign him long term.

With just a one year track record of dominance in the rotation, the salary asking price for Burnes isn’t going to be obscenely high right now. But if they wait another season and then Burnes has a two year track record of dominating in the rotation, that price is going to go up.

There’s a chance Burnes wouldn’t have any interest in a contract extension right now, knowing that he can earn more money in the long run if he waits a little longer. However, the chance of earning a bigger pay raise upfront and getting some financial security now can be enticing to some players.

Burnes has four more years of team control, same as Woodruff, although only three of those seasons are arbitration-eligible compared to Woodruff’s four. Once again, the Brewers would need to give at least five guaranteed years to Burnes to make the deal worthwhile.

Both Burnes and Woodruff represent the future of this Brewers rotation. Locking either one or both of them up to long term, cost controlled extensions would be a great move for the organization.