3 reasons to be excited, 2 reasons to be nervous about Brewers' World Series matchup with Rays

The 2026 World Series matchup is officially set. The Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays will face off in the Fall Classic with each team playing for their franchise's first World Series title. It's a matchup of the top seed in the National League and the top seed in the American League, which has true baseball fans excited about the level of play that will be seen in this year's World Series.

With an expectation that Major League Baseball will enter a lockout during the offseason as a result of the players and the league not being able to agree on the implementation of a salary cap, seeing two teams who disprove the notion that a high payroll inevitably leads to success in the postseason is certainly notable. While MLB is unlikely to change their stance on the necessity of a salary cap due to one exception in an otherwise consistent trend of big-market teams winning the World Series, seeing the Brewers and Rays disprove the league's theory just weeks before that theory is expected to lead to a months-long lockout, is undoubtedly a win for the players, who want no part in a salary cap.

However, while the league grapples with the reality of seeing not one but two pennant winners refute their argument in the ongoing Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations, the Brewers and Rays remain locked in on trying to secure the first title in the history of their respective franchises.

The Brewers were prepared for any matchup in the World Series after knocking off the red-hot San Diego Padres in the NLDS and the reigning back-to-back champion Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS, but that doesn't mean the Rays aren't a formidable threat. As the top team in the AL during the regular season, the Rays play a similar brand of baseball to Pat Murphy's NL-best squad, which could make for a difficult matchup for the Brewers. There are certainly reasons for Brewers fans to be nervous about the matchup, but let's start with three reasons why they should be confident in their team's chances in the Fall Classic.

3 reasons why Brewers fans should be confident heading into their World Series matchup with the Rays

1. The Rays' offense isn't nearly as formidable as the Padres' or Dodgers'

"Formidable" is somewhat of a subjective term when it comes to describing a baseball team's offensive prowess -- what one opponent might find formidable may differ from the type of offense that intimidates another team. No one understands that reality better than Brewers fans. However, in the context of postseason baseball, what is generally considered a formidable offense is one that can hit for power and change the game with one swing of the bat. Even the Brewers, who hit the fewest home runs of any postseason team during the regular season, defeated the Padres and Dodgers in large part due to a sudden onset of power.

If power is the measure of intimidation in October, the Rays' offense is far less formidable than either the Padres' or Dodgers'. Tampa Bay ranked 22nd in all of baseball in total home runs during the regular season, while the Dodgers ranked 8th and the Padres 15th. Additionally, that power was concentrated at the top of the Rays' lineup -- Junior Caminero crushed 42 homers during the regular season, while Jonathan Aranda and Yandy Díaz each racked up 22. That's a far cry from the consistent power up and down the Padres and Dodgers' lineups, but the Rays make up for it by scoring in other ways -- more on that later.

If success in the postseason truly comes down to out-homering your opponent, which has certainly become a less popular argument as of late, the Brewers, who have hit 10 homers in eight games in October compared to the seven that Tampa Bay has collected in nine games, hold the advantage in the Fall Classic. In theory, the Brewers face a lesser threat of the longball in the World Series than they did in either of their first two postseason series of 2026.

2. Tampa Bay's bullpen is the weakest of the Brewers' three postseason opponents

The Rays have a strong bullpen group -- it's difficult for a team to win a pennant without one. However, Tampa Bay's relief corps pales in comparison to the bullpens of the Padres and Dodgers. That's perhaps an unfair comparison, seeing as the Padres and Dodgers have two of the better bullpens in all of baseball, but it doesn't change the fact that in the World Series, the Brewers will be facing the weakest relief corps that they've seen in October.

All-Star closer Bryan Baker is undoubtedly the best arm in the Rays' bullpen. The 31-year-old right-hander, whom the Rays acquired from the Baltimore Orioles in July of last year, led all of MLB with 41 saves this season, which he collected in 44 save opportunities. Bake is five for five in save opportunities during the postseason. His 1.44 ERA and 0.91 WHIP this year indicate his regular season dominance, even if Baker paired those two stats with a 25.8% strikeout rate, which is rather pedestrian for a closer of his caliber.

Aside from Baker, southpaw Cam Booser was dominant during the regular season and has continued to impress in October, but arms like Griffin Jax, Kevin Kelly, Cole Sulser, Tyler Wells, and Ian Seymour, who were key pieces of the Rays' bullpen in the 2026 campaign, have been less reliable in the postseason. There's no doubt the Rays have been carried by their rotation in October, and if the Brewers can get to their bullpen quickly, there's opportunity to be had before Baker takes the mound.

3. Tampa Bay's top two starters have pitched a lot in October

One reason to fear the Rays is the current form of starting pitching duo Drew Rasmussen and Freddy Peralta, both of whom once pitched for the Brewers. However, while we'll dive into the duo's performance later on, the fact that the pair has covered 37 innings in six starts over the last two weeks could be a reason to believe that regression is on the horizon for Rasmussen and Peralta.

Practically every starter who has pitched the entire season is running on fumes during the final weeks of the postseason. Rasmussen made 31 starts for the Rays and covered 180 innings, while Peralta, who was traded from the New York Mets to Tampa Bay at the trade deadline, made 32 total starts and covered 169 innings this year. For reference, Rasmussen would have led the Brewers in innings pitched this year, and Peralta would have been just five innings behind Jacob Misiorowski for the team lead.

Pair a trio of starts in October with that heavy workload, and there's reason to believe Rasmussen and Peralta may not have their best stuff in the World Series, especially given the fact that the former pitched on Sunday evening and the latter pitched on Monday night. Each will pitch on normal rest during the World Series, but their growing postseason workloads could work in the Brewers' favor.

2 reasons to be nervous about facing the Rays in the World Series

1. Tampa Bay's starting pitching has dominanted in October

Yes, Rasmussen and Peralta may be fatigued after their heavy workloads in the ALDS and ALCS, but that doesn't change the fact that the pair has dominated in the postseason thus far. Rasmussen, who pitched five innings against the Brewers back on April 1 and gave up just one earned run, has a 1.29 ERA through 21 innings during the postseason. He's turned in quality starts in each of his three playoff starts this year, and dominated the New York Yankees with eight shutout innings back in the ALDS. Rasmussen, who the Brewers traded to the Rays in the Willy Adames deal back in 2021, looks better than ever on the bump.

Meanwhile, Peralta was named the ALCS MVP last night, after allowing just one earned run in 12 innings during the Rays' defeat of the Cleveland Guardians. Peralta, who was the AL Pitcher of the Month in September, made two starts and one relief appearance in the ALCS and continued what was a dominant finish to the regular season. While the Brewers' offensive approach seems to counter Peralta perfectly, if Milwaukee's former ace pitches like he did in the ALCS in the World Series, it will undoubtedly make for a tough matchup.

Rasmussen and Peralta will likely be followed by veteran right-hander Nick Martinez, who has made two starts and covered nine innings in the postseason. While Martinez hasn't looked quite as dominant as the other two starters, he did post a solid 3.10 ERA in 31 starts in the regular season which included a quality start against the Brewers back on March 30.

Tampa Bay's starting trio has certainly been used heavily through the ALDS and ALCS, but for a good reason: they've been dominant. Should that dominance continue in the World Series, the pressure will be on the Brewers to do what they did against the Dodgers and make life unbearable for their opponent's starting arms.

2. Rays' speed on the basepaths, bunting ability can make life miserable for opponents

The Brewers are known for making life difficult on their opponents by frequently bunting and stealing plenty of bases. However, the Rays were the only team in baseball this year to have more bunt hits and more stolen bases than the Brewers.

While the Brewers' infield defense and the William Contreras' ability to control opponents' running game should nerf the Rays' relentless offense to some extent, there's no denying that Tampa Bay is looking to put pressure on opposing defenses in the same way that Pat Murphy's squad does. Such an approach often leads to frustration from their opponents. The Rays will manufacture runs however they can, much like the Brewers, which puts an emphasis on Milwaukee's defense and their ability to execute pitches in key moments.

From a relentless approach at the plate, to strong defense, to a talented pitching staff, there are many similarities between the Brewers and Rays, which should make for an exciting World Series. The matchup should produce a high level of baseball in which the little things could end up playing big roles in the outcome. Expect strategy, both on the field and from the respective coaching staffs to be at the forefront, and execution between the lines to be near perfect. It's rare that the best teams from each league meet in the World Series, but when it happens, it makes for a great matchup.

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