3 reasons to believe this year's Brewers-Dodgers NLCS matchup will end differently than last year's

For the second consecutive season and the third time in the last nine seasons, the Milwaukee Brewers will face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Championship Series. Pat Murphy's squad, by virtue of their energizing series win over the San Diego Padres in the National League Division Series, is four wins away from the World Series, but as was the case last year, those four wins won't come easily.

The Dodgers are once again a juggernaut, one that signed the top free agent bat, Kyle Tucker, and relief pitcher, Edwin Díaz, during the offseason and added the reigning back-to-back AL Cy Young Award winner, Tarik Skubal, to their rotation at the deadline. As a result, the Dodgers and their record-breaking payroll are once again the favorites to win the World Series for a third consecutive year.

A season ago, during the NLCS, the Brewers were hardly a speed bump in Los Angeles' quest for a second-straight title. Milwaukee was swept in four games and scored just four total runs during the disheartening series. However, this year, there are far more reasons for Brewers fans to be encouraged about their chances of toppling the mighty Dodgers in the League Championship Series. While certainly not an exhaustive list, here are three reasons why this year's NLCS outcome could be different than last year's.

3 reasons to believe the Brewers have a better chance of knocking off the Dodgers than they had in 2025

1. The Brewers' pitching staff is even better than it was a season ago

The blame for last year's sweep at the hands of the Dodgers in the NLCS certainly can't be placed on the Brewers' pitching staff. As previously mentioned, the Brewers' lack of offense was the main reason for their loss in last year's NLCS. Milwaukee's pitching staff, meanwhile, was solid during their four games against the Dodgers' in October last year -- they held the star-studded Dodgers' lineup to just 3.75 runs per game in the 2025 NLCS.

However, as strong as the pitching staff the Brewers rostered in last year's NLCS was, the group they are carrying to dethrone the Dodgers this year is even better. It starts with NL Cy Young front-runner Jacob Misiorowski, the Brewers' ace who will take the ball in Game 1. Misiorowski, with his record-breaking velocity, is coming off the best single-season performance by a pitcher in franchise history. While Freddy Peralta was excellent last year, Miz is certainly an upgrade when it comes to the ace of Milwaukee's rotation.

The rotation is also much deeper this year than it was a season ago. Whereas last year the Brewers were relying on Peralta, an injured Quinn Priester, and veteran southpaw José Quintana, who was coming off of a late-season injury, this year they have many more options. Rookie right-hander Logan Henderson turned in a strong performance in his postseason debut on Sunday, and starters Dustin May and Robert Gasser proved to be solid options for Games 3 and 4. Milwaukee also has arms like Shane Drohan and Kyle Harrison on their expected NLCS roster, neither of whom pitched in the NLDS, but also have yet to have their postseason roles clearly defined.

The Brewers' bullpen is also in a much better spot than it was a year ago. Last year, Trevor Megill was coming off of a late-season flexor strain, and arms like Tobias Myers and Grant Anderson weren't trusted in high-leverage situations. This year, Pat Murphy's bullpen is not only at full strength, but it's far deeper than it was a year ago. That strength was on full display in the Brewers' NLDS matchup against the Padres, as the bullpen covered 20 innings in four games and allowed just one earned run. With three off-days before the NLCS begins, expect Murphy to once again lean on his talented bullpen group against the Dodgers.

2. The Dodgers' offense isn't as strong as it was a season ago

It's hard to argue that the Dodgers' roster is much worse than it was a season ago. While two-way star Shohei Ohtani won't pitch in this year's NLCS, due to lingering knee and biceps injuries, the Dodgers have essentially replaced him in their rotation with Skubal. As such, the Dodgers still sport a ridiculous rotation of Skubal, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Tyler Glasnow that is just as good as the one that dominated the Brewers last year.

While runs will certainly be at a premium for the Brewers during the NLCS, they too will be at a premium for the Dodgers' offense. In addition to the improvements to Milwaukee's pitching staff listed above, Los Angeles' offense is not quite as formidable as it was a season ago. Whereas last year, the Dodgers' offense had a collective 113 wRC+ (weighted runs created, which is a holistic stat created to capture the entire offensive value of a player or lineup) during the regular season, which decreases to 109 when limited to just the second half of the season, this year they posted a 111 wRC+ during the regular season and just a 104 wRC+ during the second half. For reference, the Brewers' offense posted a 107 wRC+ this year, which increases to 111 when only the second half is considered.

Perhaps the biggest difference for the Dodgers this year is the production from their two best hitters: Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. Ohtani saw his wRC+ decrease from an unbelievable 172 in 2025 to 139 this year, while his home run total dropped from 55 to 30. Some of that was due to injuries and missed time, but there's no denying 2026 was a step back for the 4x MVP by Ohtani's ridiculously high standards. Freeman, meanwhile, now in his age-37 season, saw his wRC+ decrease from 139 in 2025 to 120 this year. He collected just 16 home runs and posted a sub-.800 OPS for the first time since 2012. Pair that with a lackluster debut season from Kyle Tucker, and the Dodgers' lineup may look scarier than it truly is.

That said, several Dodgers did put together strong performances in their NLDS victory over the Atlanta Braves. Max Muncy crushed three homers in the four-game series, to give him an incredible 19 career postseason homers. Freeman went deep twice, and collected four hits. Tucker, Kiké Hernández, and Teoscar Hernández each crushed a homer as well, but Ohtani, Will Smith, and Mookie Betts all struggled during the season. Overall, despite their star-studded lineup, Los Angeles' offense by no means unbeatable, and is not quite as strong as it was last year.

3. Milwaukee's path through the NLDS was vastly different in 2026 than it was in 2025

Before matching up with the Dodgers in the NLCS last year, the Brewers played one of the most emotional postseason series in franchise history. Facing the Chicago Cubs in the postseason for the first time in franchise history, with former manager Craig Counsell in the opposite dugout, the Brewers pulled off an memorable series victory, but it took everything they had.

The series went five games after the Brewers won the first two contests at American Family Field before dropping Games 3 and 4 at Wrigley Field. Throughout those five games, the Brewers used Peralta and Misiorowski twice and asked a lot of their relief corps. As a result, when the Brewers got to the NLCS, which started less than 48 hours after Milwaukee's taxing win over the Cubs in Game 5, their roster was gassed. It certainly didn't help that they were facing one of the best rosters ever assembled, but the Brewers didn't do themselves any favors by failing to close out the Cubs in the NLDS before Game 5.

This year, however, is a different story. By virtue of a series-clinching victory over the Padres last night, the Brewers now have three days off before the NLCS begins. That affords their pitching staff a chance to rest, their offense a chance to catch its breath, and their coaching staff the ability to line their rotation up as they please. It means the Brewers will have Misiorowski and a full bullpen in Game 1 and Logan Henderson in Game 2.

Therefore, the Brewers' path through the NLDS this year has set them up better for success than their memorable, but taxing series against the Cubs last year. With a well-rested roster at full strength, the Brewers are in a much better position to defeat the mighty Dodgers this year than they were in 2025.

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