Breaking down Brandon Woodruff's contract situation heading into the 2025-26 offseason

One of the most pressing matters facing the Milwaukee Brewers this offseason is how they will construct their starting rotation for the 2026 season. With a plethora of talented, yet unproven starting options, an ace who has already been the topic of early-offseason trade rumors, and two proven veterans likely headed for free agency, newly minted President of Baseball Operations Matt Arnold has plenty to consider this offseason.

Those two proven veterans almost certainly destined for free agency are southpaw José Quintana and long-time Milwaukee fan favorite Brandon Woodruff. The reason that these two are almost certainly headed for free agency is because each of them possesses a mutual option in the contracts that they signed with the Brewers. While mutual options are almost always turned down by either the player or the team, there exist rare instances where both sides agree that the option is an accurate assessment of the player's value.

However, Woody's contract complexities don't just end with his mutual option, which will be decided upon in the five days following the completion of the World Series. Here's a full breakdown of the different options that the Brewers have when it comes to retaining Woody for the 2026 season and beyond.

A full breakdown of Brandon Woodruff's contract situation heading into the 2025-26 offseason

Prior to the 2024 season, Woodruff signed a two-year, $17.5 million deal with the Brewers. Woody, who had just hit free agency for the first time in his career, went down with a late-season shoulder injury just before the 2023 postseason that was expected to keep him away from a big-league mound until at least the start of the 2025 season. As such, the contract the Brewers gave him served as an opportunity for him to rehab with an organization he was familiar with, before having an opportunity to prove his value before he hit free agency once again. Woody was paid $2.5 million in 2024, while he was rehabbing, and $5 million in 2025, a fine value for the 12 excellent starts that he made last season.

$20 million mutual option for the 2026 season

Now, that two-year contract is up, but as previously mentioned, there was a $20 million mutual option for the 2026 season included in the deal. If both sides agree that a one-year, $20 million deal makes the most sense for them in 2026, said mutual option will be picked up, and a lot of trouble will be saved. However, there are several reasons to believe that this won't be the outcome.

First, Woodruff holds a $10 million buyout if he or the Brewers elect not to pick up his mutual option, meaning Woody would essentially be paid $10 million to become a free agent this offseason. Second, Woodruff is almost guaranteed to earn a multi-year deal on the open market worth more than the $20 million he would make by agreeing to stay in Milwaukee for one more year. And finally, if Woody does want to stay in Milwaukee for just one more year, it would make more sense for him to deny his side of the mutual option, take the $10 million buyout, and then force the Brewers to extend him the qualifying offer.

If mutual option declined, Woody becomes a qualifying offer candidate

That's where the other wrinkle in Woody's offseason plans comes from: the qualifying offer. Said offer is essentially a one-year deal that can be extended to any player who hasn't received a qualifying offer in the past and spent the entire previous year with the same organization. The value of the offer is determined by the average of the top 125 paid players in MLB; this year it is set at $22.05 million.

So, let's say Woodruff declines his side of the mutual option, which is almost a guarantee at this point, making him a free agent with $10 million already in his pocket from the Brewers. Now, the front office must decide if they want to extend him the one-year $22.05 million qualifying offer, essentially paying him $32.05 million to stay in Milwaukee for 2026, or try to work out a long-term deal.

If qualifying offer declined, an expensive multi-year contract becomes the only avenue

While Woody would almost certainly give the Brewers a discount for the loyalty and dedication that they've shown him throughout the years, a long-term contract is still likely to be out of Milwaukee's price range. For reference, Sean Manaea, who is a year older and has worse career numbers than Woodruff, signed a three-year, $75 million contract with the New York Mets last offseason. Assuming Woody signs a comparable deal, which is on the low side of what he could ask for in the open market, he would be eating up roughly 20% of the Brewers’ payroll for the next three seasons.

It's not out of the question, especially given what Woody has meant to this team since debuting with them back in 2017, but it would be a significant shift away from the strategy that has turned the Brewers into a contender for the last eight seasons. Even still, the thought of Woody wearing another team's jersey is tough to stomach.