Brewers' postseason rotation plan left in flux after Dustin May's start against Orioles

Dustin May's eight starts since joining the Milwaukee Brewers ahead of last month's trade deadline have been all over the place. The 29-year-old right-hander, who the Brewers acquired alongside JoJo Romero from their division rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals, has shown flashes of excellence during his brief stint with the Brew Crew. However, accompanying those moments of dominance are several starts that give Brewers fans reason to be concerned about May in the postseason.

May's tenure with the first-place Brewers began encouragingly. In his Brewers debut, he turned in a quality start against the Pittsburgh Pirates while allowing just three hits across six innings. His three walks in the contest were of slight concern, but May showed an ability to work around the traffic on the basepaths and give the Brewers a great chance to win the game, which they did by a score of 5-2. May followed up that solid debut with a dominant performance against the San Diego Padres, in which he tossed seven innings of one-run ball.

Unfortunately, May's third start in a Brewers uniform was when the struggles began. He allowed seven earned runs and didn't make it to the third inning in an August 19 start against the Seattle Mariners at American Family Field. The following week, May was struck by a comebacker on the first pitch of a start against the New York Mets, and when he returned to the mound just four days later, he once again turned in a short start -- this time covering just 4.1 innings while allowing six hits and four earned runs to the Texas Rangers.

An encouraging start against the Cincinnati Reds on September 5 was cut short due to a rain delay, but six days later, May proved it wasn't a fluke by dominating that same Reds lineup with six scoreless frames. That start, paired with Kyle Harrison's recent struggles, had Brewers fans believing that May could be a serviceable No. 3 starter behind Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson in the postseason. However, May's lackluster performance against the Baltimore Orioles last night once again has Brewers fans questioning whether or not he can be trusted in October.

Despite inconsistent results, Dustin May still has the tools to be a key piece of the Brewers' 2026 postseason run

May's surface-level numbers since joining the Brewers on August 3 undoubtedly look poor. In eight starts, he has a 5.40 ERA and is allowing an opponent OPS of .789. Those numbers certainly justify Brewers' fans' concerns with sending May to the mound in a crucial postseason matchup.

However, May's "stuff" remains strong even during this period of inconsistency, and the right-hander has acknowledged it during his post-game interviews. May has maintained that he feels good, his pitches are doing what he wants them to do, and he's simply not getting the results he expects. The underlying metrics back up May's belief -- movement and velocity metrics on May's six-pitch arsenal remain strong even since the trade.

The biggest change since the trade has been May's pitch usage. Unsurprisingly, given the Brewers' affinity for multiple fastball shapes, May is throwing his cutter and sinker far more than he was before the trade, while relying on his four-seamer far less. That's not to say this change is the sole reason for May's recent inconsistency, but given the fact that the cutter has the highest opponent batting average and opponent slugging percentage of any of his pitches, it's surprising to see the Brewers continue to emphasize it start after start. It's certainly an effective pitch against left-handers, but righties, like Pete Alonso, who crushed a three-run homer on one of May's cutters last night, have found success against it.

May's ceiling is too high to ignore, and he's shown that potential on multiple occasions since joining the Brew Crew. His stuff remains strong and his postseason experience can't be ignored, especially on Milwaukee's inexperienced pitching staff. It may be the case that May doesn't act as a "true starter" in the playoffs, but the Brewers' trade deadline acquisition will absolutely play a role on their postseason roster. Hopefully, May turns in a strong performance during his final regular season outing to ease the concerns that the Milwaukee faithful has about the Brewers' starting rotation heading into October.

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