The cases for and against William Contreras in his arbitration battle with Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers are once again taking a star player to an arbitration hearing. After winning arb cases against Josh Hader and Corbin Burnes, the Brewers appear headed back to a trial, this time with All Star catcher William Contreras.

Brewers fans are understandably frustrated that the team and a fan favorite player once again were unable to come to terms on a settlement. The Brewers filed at $5.6 million while Contreras filed for a $6.5 million salary. They can still come to a settlement at any number between now and walking into the hearing room, but Milwaukee typically employs a "file and trial" approach and let's the arbitrator make the final call once things get to this point.

Arbitration cases are largely about comparisons. What did similar players earn previously in arbitration? Is this player better than that player? Historically, arbitration has favored old school stats like home runs, RBIs, wins, saves, etc.

Does William Contreras have a case? Will the Brewers win yet another arb hearing? Let's dig into the case for both sides.

The case for the Brewers in arbitration

The two players the Brewers are likely comparing Contreras to are Cal Raleigh and Adley Rutschman. Rutschman settled with the Orioles at $5.5 million while Raleigh settled at $5.6 million. Both are catchers entering their first year of arbitration like Contreras. How do their career numbers compare?

Rutschman: .261/.351/.421, 52 HR, 201 RBI, 121 OPS+, 13.1 bWAR
Raleigh: .218/.296/.444, 93 HR, 251 RBI, 112 OPS+, 11.3 bWAR
Contreras: .277/.358/.465, 68 HR, 239 RBI, 124 OPS+, 11.4 bWAR

His WAR total is very similar to Raleigh, and well below Rutschman, who is earning even less than the Brewers filed for. In counting stats, Contreras is below Raleigh in home runs and RBIs, but ahead of Rutschman. Arbitration has historically valued the home run, which is why so many players still chase that power, it's how they get paid.

Is William Contreras really that much better than Cal Raleigh and Adley Rutschman? The fan in most would argue yes, but according to WAR, no he isn't. They're very similar players. Rutschman having a higher WAR than Contreras and still earning just $5.5 million does not help Contreras' case.

Even if you prefer Fangraphs WAR, Contreras comes in dead last among these three at 13.1 fWAR. Rutschman is at 13.3 while Raleigh is at 13.9 fWAR. Also if you want to look at defense, which is admittedly very important, Raleigh won a Gold Glove in 2024.

Statistically, they are all very similar players, so why should Contreras get $6.5 million, a full million more than Rutschman and nearly a million more than Raleigh? Raleigh's $5.6 million number is the second-largest ever for a catcher in his first year of arbitration. The record of $8 million was set by Buster Posey, who won MVP the year before, only a true outlier is sniffing that. In order for Contreras to get that close to Posey, he has to significantly better than these players in some categories or more comparable to Posey. According to the numbers, he just isn't.

The case for William Contreras

There are two major categories where Contreras has an edge over his comparison counterparts that he will need to press in order to win. The first is OPS. Let's look at the numbers

• Rutschman: .772 OPS
• Raleigh: .740 OPS
• Contreras: .822 OPS

While Rutschman's career OPS is higher, he's coming off a down year in 2024 with just a .709 OPS. Raleigh's OPS looks much rougher because of his low on-base percentage that starts with his extremely low batting average. Raleigh is a sub-.300 OBP hitter. He makes up for it by mashing more homers, though.

Contreras can press that his career OPS is 50-80 points higher than the players he's likely going to be compared to. 50-80 points of OPS is a sizable amount, that's a very big difference. A difference teams would pay an extra $900,000 for, Contreras would argue. In free agency, guys with OPS numbers 50-80 points higher than someone else generally earn quite a bit more cash than those other players.

If you prefer wRC+, Raleigh is at a 111 wRC+ for his career. Contreras is sitting at 126. That means he's 15 percent better than Raleigh is, roughly. What's 15% more than $5.6 million? That totals to $6.44 million, right around where Contreras filed. Interesting.

Also, just continuing with the Posey comparison. Posey had an .883 OPS with a career 146 OPS+ at the time of his arbitration case and got $8 million. Contreras' 124 OPS+ means Posey was 22 percent better than Contreras, who filed for $6.5 million. What's 22 percent higher than $6.5 million? That would be $7.93 million or roughly $8 million.

The other thing Contreras can press that neither of his counterparts have is a top 5 MVP finish. Yes, he has two All-Star appearances and two Silver Sluggers, but Rutschman is a two-time All Star as well, and has one Silver Slugger. Neither Rutschman nor Raleigh have sniffed the top 5 of MVP balloting. Rutschman's closest was 9th in 2023 while Raleigh has finished 18th and 12th the last two years respectively.

How much is a top five MVP finish worth in the eyes of an arbitration panel? Posey won MVP which is why he got the record salary, but since Contreras was top five, that should be worth something higher than these further down ballot comparisons, right?

Conclusion

William Contreras is likely to lose this arbitration case. The comparisons on WAR are spot on and justifying that Contreras is so much better than Raleigh and Rutschman that he deserves to pace those two by around a million dollars is going to be difficult. The Brewers know what they're doing in these cases, they have the comps that Contreras is unlikely to escape.

Contreras' only hope is somehow convincing the panel that a 50-80 point difference in career OPS is significant enough that he deserves to split the gap between these two otherwise very comparable players and an MVP in Buster Posey. He has to attach himself more to Posey, who went through arbitration more than a decade ago.

Even meeting in the middle at like $6 million, it would re-set the market for first year arbitration catchers and the Brewers aren't likely to do that, especially when they know they have a strong case. The best case scenario for both sides is agreeing on a multi-year deal that maybe gives lower money now, but more later and buys out his arbitration years, guaranteeing his future raises in case of injury. Contreras gets insurance and can still reach free agency at 29 while the Brewers get cost certainty with a much happier star player that they won't have to get nasty with in a courtroom.

That kind of deal may be wishful thinking, and it probably is. However, that's the best case right now for Contreras because he's unlikely to win this case and nobody really wins if this goes to a hearing.

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