Dustin May's stats show he is the perfect guy to close out Padres, but how long will his leash be?

The 2026 campaign was a turbulent one for starting pitcher Dustin May. There have been some incredibly high highs, but also some very low lows. Still, after missing out on Tarik Skubal at the trade deadline, the Milwaukee Brewers trusted May's electric arsenal and got a deal done with their NL Central foe, the St. Louis Cardinals, to acquire the big righty, along with JoJo Romero for a pair of talented outfield prospects.

May was considered one of the top pitchers not named Skubal available at the trade deadline, and for relatively good reason. With the Cardinals, May was just 5-7 with a 4.38 ERA in 21 starts, but he has a long track record of success, a pitch mix that should produce better results than it has this year, and postseason experience -- a rare combination for a rental on the trade market.

The 29-year-old May had mixed results as a member of the Brewers' rotation during the final two months of the season. He logged a 5.65 ERA and only 38 strikeouts in 36.2 innings, but showed flashes of the dominant pitcher that the Brewers know he can be. Milwaukee decided to trust experience and talent over results and named May their Game 3 starting pitcher, which certainly came as a surprise to some fans. However, May's "stuff" and his ridiculous success against the Padres this year should have fans confident in the deadline acquisition despite his inconsistent finish to the regular season.

Dustin May's dominance against Padres in 2026 bodes well for Game 3 start

Though it was by no means an obvious decision, the Brewers electing to throw May in Game 3 is the right call, in part due to the right-hander's familiarity with the Padres and pitching at Petco Park. As a long-time member of the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are NL West rivals of the Padres, May has thrown 47.2 innings at Petco throughout his MLB career, and boasts a 3.02 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a .182 opponent batting average in those appearances.

In 2026, May has already faced the Padres three times, twice as a member of the Cardinals and once in a Brewers uniform, and two of those three starts came at San Diego's home ballpark. Back on May 9, May turned in a quality start at Petco, covering six innings while allowing just two earned runs on three hits while racking up seven strikeouts.

Then, just a few days after Jacob Misiorowski threw a "Maddux" (a complete game with under 100 pitches) against the Philadelphia Phillies, Dustin May nearly threw one of his own against the Padres. In that game, which was a June 15 start in St. Louis, May struck out nine, allowed just one hit and one walk, but missed out on a Maddux after throwing 101 pitches. Still, it was his first career complete game, and, in turn, his first ever shutout.

May's third start against San Diego this year, which came as a member of the Brewers, was also strong. He earned a "no-decision" after throwing seven innings, striking out six, and allowing just one run on four hits. Milwaukee ultimately lost that game in the 11th inning, when Luis Campusano drove in the winning run off Antonio Senzatela, but that was through no fault of May's, who turned in one of his best performances since the trade deadline.

While it would certainly be ideal for the Brewers to get another long start out of May, the postseason and Milwaukee's strong, well-rested bullpen make one wonder how long manager Pat Murphy will stick with May. Jacob Misiorowski was held to just four innings in Game 1, and Henderson to five in Game 2, suggesting Murphy won't hesitate to go to his 'pen early if he has to. After a day off to travel out west, it would seem that everyone in the bullpen should be available, making it likely that May has a pretty short leash tonight.

What should the Brewers pitching plan after May look like in Game 3?

Again, in a perfect world, May goes out and keeps up his great work against San Diego, turning the game over to the late-inning, high-leverage arms to close out the series. But what if he doesn't? What would make the most sense for the Brewers to do, with a potential Game 4 looming on Wednesday? Luckily, Milwaukee has a few options depending on how the game is going.

If it's a short outing from May, but Milwaukee is winning or tied when he exits the game, the Brewers have the arms to cover the final five or six innings, whatever it may be. Of note is the fact that Murphy turned to both Antonio Senzatela and DL Hall with a full bullpen in Game 1 over arms like JoJo Romero and Shane Drohan. The combination of Senzatela, Hall, Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe, and Trevor Megill, all of whom are certainly available tonight, should be able to cover at least the final five innings if not six.

If May turns in a short inning and the Brewers are trailing by more than one run, Murphy could save some of his high-leverage arms for a potential Game 4, and turn to someone like Drohan or Kyle Harrison to cover multiple innings in the middle of the game. It's not yet clear how the Brewers envision using Harrison, who was very inconsistent during the final weeks of the regular season, but it would be shocking to see them throw the southpaw into a high-leverage situation if they can avoid it. Presumably, left-hander Robert Gasser will be saved for a potential Game 4 on Wednesday night, but that also hasn't been confirmed by the club.

One thing to note is that over the weekend, Jacob Misiorowski was asked about potentially coming out of the bullpen for a game in between starts -- starters often throw a "mid-week" bullpen between starts, but theoretically that could occur in an actual game. Misiorowski was open to the idea, and while it's unlikely, it's not completely out of the question that Murphy calls upon his ace for three outs during the final innings of Game 3. Murphy did use his then-ace, Freddy Peralta, in the eighth inning of Game 3 of the 2024 NL Wild Card Series against the New York Mets, so anything is possible.

Milwaukee is in the driver's seat of this series, with a crucial 2-0 lead. Murphy certainly has plenty of options at his disposal as the Brewers look to return to the NLCS for a second consecutive season. Closing out the Padres tonight would put Milwaukee in the best position to succeed in the NLCS.

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